Happy Monday, November 5, 2018
In October 2018, the Wesley Chapel housing market didn’t favor sellers or buyers. It trended neutral.
The number of homes sold fell 11.1% from October 2017 and dropped 17% from September 2018. The number of homes for sale rose 23.5% from a year ago and increased 4% from a month ago. The number of homes under contract jumped 17.4% compared to October 2017, but dropped 11.1% compared to October 2017. The Months of Inventory (based on Closed Sales) came in at 3.7 months, up 37.5% from October of last year.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage increased 1.6% compared to September 2018 and 6.6% compared to last year. The Median Sold Price rose 6.9% from September 2018. The Average Sold Price increased by 8.4% during that same period. So based on the 6-month trend, the Average Sold Price and the Median Sold Price trend is “neutral.”
The Average Days on Market also showed a neutral trend, falling 3.8% compared to a year ago. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price came in at 96%, a decrease of 1% from October 2017.
Home Sales (Sold)
In October 2018, 112 homes sold, a drop of 11.1% compared to October of 2017 when 126 sold. That was also 17% lower than the 135 sold in September 2018.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
The total number of homes for sale jumped by 79 units or 23.5% compared to a year ago. The amount of current inventory rose 4% compared to a month ago.
Property Under Contract (Pended)
Homes under contract (pending) increased by 27.7% compared to last month, but fell 11.7% compared to last year.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage shows the direction of property values. The “mix” of very expensive or very cheap homes sold can skew the Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price. But the Average Sold Price per Square Footage can provide a more normalized indicator of the direction of home values. In October 2018, the Average Sold Price per Square Footage was $129, up 1.6% from $127 in September 2018. That was 6.6% higher than the $121 price in October 2017.
The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend
The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, while a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for October 2018 was 51 days, down 3.8% from 53 days last month and October of last year.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are decreasing their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. In October Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% was the same as last month, but 1% lower than in October 2017.
The Average For Sale Price is Depreciating
The Average For Sale Price in October 2018 of $348,000 fell 5.4% from $368,000 in October of 2017 and 3.9% from $362,000 in September 2018.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in October of $324,000 increased 3.5% from $313,000 in October of 2017 and 8.4% from $299,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral
The Median Sold Price in October was $294,000, up 6.9% from $275,000 in October of 2017 and September 2018.
It’s a Neutral Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The October 2018 Months of Inventory of 3.7 months increased 37.5% compared to last year and 23.7% compared to last month.
Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The October 2018 Absorption Rate was 27%. This was a 28% drop compared to October 2017 and 20.1% decrease compared to September 2018.
The construction projects transforming the Tampa Bay area changed significantly in October.
From Virage Bayshore, a luxury condo tower on Bayshore Boulevard, to apartments in downtown Tampa to a boutique hotel in Ybor City, the region’s biggest new developments are moving forward.
View the photo gallery for a tour of the projects, including the following:
Altis Grand Central
- Where: Across Grand Central Avenue from Oxford Exchange
- Site: 2.5 acres bound by Grand Central Avenue to the north and Cleveland Street to the south, Cedar Avenue to the east and Magnolia Street to the west
- Project: 314 residential units and 9,750 square feet of retail space
- Developer: Altman Cos. of Boca Raton
- Where: 202 S. Parker St.
- Site: 4.4-acre former Tampa Tribune property
- Project: 400 apartments and 10,000-square-foot restaurant
- Developer: Related Group of Miami
- Where: 1105 E. Twiggs St.
- Site: Between Grand Central at Kennedy and Bell Channelside
- Project: 21-story, 323-apartment tower and Publix Super Markets Inc. store
- Developer: Mercury Advisors of Tampa
The Cove at Rocky Point
- Where: 4050 Dana Shores Drive
- Site: Former A La Carte property
- Project: 16 single-family homes beginning at $1.25 million; 40 townhouses in the $500,000s
- Developer: Taylor Morrison
- Where: 3401 Bayshore Blvd.
- Site: Former Colonnade Restaurant
- Project: 24-story, 71-unit condo tower with units beginning at $1 million
- Developer: Ascentia Development Group and Batson-Cook Development Co.
From the Blog:
A considerable number of potential buyers shy away from jumping into the real estate market due to their uncertainties about the buying process. A specific cause for concern tends to be mortgage qualification.
For many, the mortgage process can be scary, but it doesn’t have to be!
In order to qualify in today’s market, you’ll need a down payment (the average down payment on all loans last year was 5%, with many buyers putting down 3% or less), a stable income, and good credit history.
Throughout the entire home buying process, you will interact with many different professionals who will all perform necessary roles. These professionals are also valuable resources for you.
Once you’re ready to apply, here are 5 easy steps that Freddie Mac suggests to follow:
- Find out your current credit history & score – even if you don’t have perfect credit, you may already qualify for a loan. The average FICO Score® of all closed loans in September was 731, according to Ellie Mae.
- Start gathering all of your documentation – income verification (such as W-2 forms or tax returns), credit history, and assets (such as bank statements to verify your savings).
- Contact a professional – your real estate agent will be able to recommend a loan officer who can help you develop a spending plan, as well as help you determine how much home you can afford.
- Consult with your lender – he or she will review your income, expenses, and financial goals in order to determine the type and amount of mortgage you qualify for.
- Talk to your lender about pre-approval – a pre-approval letter provides an estimate of what you might be able to borrow (provided your financial status doesn’t change) and demonstrates to home sellers that you are serious about buying!
Do your research, reach out to professionals, stick to your budget, and be sure that you are ready to take on the financial responsibilities of becoming a homeowner.
You’re never too old for the American Dream.
Take Rupert and Pat Haller. Since 1974, these high school sweethearts planned to buy a quiet, spacious home, a far cry from the fourth-floor walk-up apartment in Jersey City where they spent most of their lives.
They finally closed on their first home in September, a ranch-style house in Toms River, New Jersey.
“It’s really what we strived to do,” said Rupert, 65. “After 45 years of marriage, we’re both retired, we have a house, and we spend every moment together. I’m very blessed.”
The Hallers represent a tiny but growing sliver of first-time homebuyers in this year’s housing market. The share of homebuyers 55 and older has more than doubled in the last 15 years to 38 percent. And senior first-timers accounted for 9 percent of that share – the highest level since data was first collected in 2003, according to the 2018 Homebuyer Profile report from the National Association of Realtors given to USA TODAY exclusively.
“People are living longer, working longer and have steady income in retirement if they even retire at all, so they feel comfortable taking on a mortgage in their senior years,” says Jessica Lautz, NAR’s managing director of survey research and communications.
With fall upon us, temperatures are cooling off but the real estate market is heating up. For people hoping to sell their homes before the end of the year, the clock is ticking. That’s because the market slows down significantly after Thanksgiving due to the holidays. And in parts of the country where all four seasons exist, the winter weather can keep sellers on the sidelines until March.
Faced with the short fall real estate season, there are steps sellers can take to increase their chances of closing the deal before December.
November 1, 2018
While higher mortgage rates have led to a decline in home sales this year, the weakness has been concentrated in expensive segments versus entry-level and first-time buyer which remains firm throughout most of the rest of the country. Despite higher mortgage rates, the monthly mortgage payment remains affordable. For many buyers the chronic lack of entry-level supply is a larger hurdle than higher mortgage rates because choices are limited and the inventory shortage has caused home prices to rise well above fundamentals.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic New Year!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!