Happy Monday, February 4, 2019
In January 2019, the Wesley Chapel housing market trended neutral. That means neither buyers or sellers had an advantage.
In January 2019, the number of single-family homes for sale climbed 34.6% from January 2018 and 9.9% from December 2018. The number of single-family homes sold fell 14% year over year and 25.2% month over month. The number of single-family homes under contract jumped 44.6% compared December of 2018 and held steady compared to January 2018.
The Months of Inventory came in at 5.3 months, up 56.6% from January of last year. The Average Sold Price per Square Footage rose 2.4% compared to last month and 3.3% compared to last January. The Median Sold Price dropped 3.8% and the Average Sold Price increased 2.1% from December 2018.
The Average Days on Market showed a neutral trend, increasing 31.5% compared to last January. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price was 94%, a decrease of 4.1% compared to January 2018.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
In January 2019, 108 homes were listed for sale. That’s an increase 34.6% from January 2018 and 9.9% from December 2018.
Property Under Contract (Pended)
In January 2019, 133 homes were under contract (pending). That’s a 44.6% rise compared to December 2018. It’s the same number as January 2018.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage indicates the direction of homes values. The ‘mix’ of high or low-end properties in the market can sometimes skew the Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator on the trend of property values. The January 2019 Average Sold Price per Square Footage was $126, up 2.4% from $123 last month and 3.3% from $122 in January of last year.
The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for January 2019 was 71, down 4.1% from 74 days last month and up 31.5% from 54 days in January of last year.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers agree to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. In January 2019, Sold Price vs. Original List Price was 94%, down 1.1% from December 2018 and 4.1% from January 2018.
The Average For Sale Price is Depreciating
The Average For Sale Price in January was $351,000, down 6.6% from $376,000 in January of 2018 and down 1.4% from $356,000 in December 2018.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in January was $286,000, down 3.1% from $295,000 in January of 2018 and up 2.1% from $280,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Depreciating
The Median Sold Price in January was $250,000, down 15.5% from $296,000 in January of 2018 and down 3.8% from $260,000 last month.
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
In January 2019, Months of Inventory came in at 5.3 months, an increase of 56.6% compared to last January and 47.6% compared to last month. Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
In January 2019, the Absorption Rate of 19 was a drop of 36.2% compared to January 2019 and 32.1% compared to December 2018.
Florida State Fair: The fair returns to Tampa’s Florida State Fairgrounds on Thursday for the 115th year with a “Discover the Fun” theme. Highlights include rides, food, exhibits, animals, shopping, rodeos and a candy exhibition. Admission is $11 for adults; $6 for children 6 to 11; and free for children 5 and under. Visit floridastatefair.com for more ticket options.
Sant’ Yago Knight Parade: Gasparilla season continues on Saturday when Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn serves as grand marshal for this year’s night-time parade along Seventh Ave. in Ybor City, featuring more than 100 illuminated floats, marching bands, krewes and their royalty. Free, $25 bleacher seats. (727) 895-5030.
Gulfport Peace, Love and Pride Festival: Gulfport celebrates pride, diversity and everyone with music and a chili cook-off on Sunday. Gulfport Casino, 5500 Shore Blvd. S. Free. (727) 289-9365.
Music: Alt-rockers Sevendust play Jannus Live on Tuesday ($24), while alt-hip hop group G. Love and Special Sauce make a stop at Clearwater’s Capitol Theatre on the heels of their 25th anniversary tour ($32.50-$40). Indie-pop phenom Japanese Breakfast returns to Tampa on Saturday with a show at the Orpheum ($20).
111 Years of Broadway: Neil Berg’s production returns to Ruth Eckerd Hall on Monday, with revived arrangements of Broadway classics as well as favorites from newer productions ($18-$35). rutheckerdhall.com.
Winston Duke: USF’s lecture series features the Black Panther star, who will discuss his career and how films like Black Panther influence black culture. Takes place in Marshall Student Center on Friday. Free.
Madea’s Farewell Play: Tyler Perry plays his most beloved character, the curmudgeonly Mabel “Madea” Simmons, on one more tour before he brings the character to an end. Wednesday-Thursday at Tampa’s Straz Center ($48.75-$$128.75) strazcenter.org.
Lady Swanwhite: The world premiere of Anton Coppola’s chamber opera at Tampa’s Straz Center on Saturday will be conducted by Maestro Jorge Parodi. Coppola is the uncle of legendary director Francis Ford, so the event will likely be star-studded ($67-$118). strazcenter.org.
KIDS AND FAMILY
Tampa Bay Rays Fan Fest: Get autographs from players ($25) and enjoy a gaming experience at Tropicana Field on Saturday. Fans ages 18 and older must visit raysbaseball.com/fanfest for a free ticket.
Hockey Day Tampa Bay: Join Tampa Bay Lightning Alumni and staff at Tampa’s Amalie arena on Sunday for a day all about hockey with an LHSHL All Star game and a fire department vs. police department game ($10).
Video of the Week
Over the course of the last thirty years, a shift has happened. An entire generation has been raised to believe that a college education is their key to unlocking opportunities that were not available to their parent’s or grandparent’s generations.
Due to this, student loan debt has soared to $1.5 trillion and represents the largest category of debt, surpassing credit card and auto loan debt in 2010 and never looking back. As more and more Americans continue their education amongst rising tuition costs, this number will no doubt increase.
Many housing experts have blamed student loans for a drop in the homeownership rate for young families, and to an extent, they’ve been right. Increased debt at the time of graduation has no doubt limited young people from being able to afford a home at the same rate as their parents or grandparents did at the same age.
In a recent Forbes article, the author explained that “in just the class of 2017, the average student has about $40,000 in debt — almost enough for a 20% down payment on a median-priced home.”
The Federal Reserve set out to determine exactly how much impact student loan debt has had on the homeownership rate of those 18-34 (millennials). Their results found that,
“Every $1,000 in student loan debt delays homeownership by about 2.5 months, but it doesn’t prevent homeownership entirely.
In fact, by the time college grads reach their 30s, those with student loan debt have a homeownership rate nearly identical to those who didn’t take out loans.” (emphasis added)
In the Wall Street Journal’s coverage of the Fed report, they found that recent graduates prioritize paying off their student loans over saving for a down payment, despite their desire to be a homeowner. Many with debt want to “get that monkey off (their) back (before they) make any new investments.”
This has just delayed the wave of young home buyers from hitting the market. But as Danielle Hale, the Chief Economist at realtor.com warns,
“2020 will be peak millennial, the year when the largest number of millennials will turn 30.”
By age 30, those who attained a bachelor’s degree right after high school will be one or two years away from paying off their loans and will have been in their career long enough to earn a higher salary.
In the long run, research shows that attaining a bachelor’s degree or more actually increases the chances that someone will become a homeowner.
If you are one of the many millennials who has prioritized paying down your student loans over saving for a down payment, you’re not alone. Even if you are a couple years away from paying off your loans, let’s get together to help you determine if waiting really is the best decision for you!
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Last year we saw headlines about a possible housing market bubble, and many wondered if Americans still felt confident about the value of their homes. Recently, the 2018 Houzz & Home Study revealed:
“Homeowners with mortgages have seen their home equity more than double since 2011, increasing to a record-setting $8.3 trillion in 2017.”
The average homeowner gained $16,200 in home equity between Q2 2017 and Q2 2018 according to the latest release of CoreLogic’s Home Equity Report.
Since 2011 home values have increased significantly throughout the country, with prices rising by 5.1% in 2018 alone. When surveyed, homeowners revealed the top four reasons why they felt their homes had increased in value.
- Desirable Location
- Improved National Economy
- Improved Local Economy
- Low Home Inventory in My Area
As we can see, not only does the data show that the homes have appreciated, but homeowners also believe they know why. Many have taken advantage of the opportunity to use their newly found equity to sell their current house and move up to their dream home!
2019 will be a good year for the homeowners that still want to take advantage of their home equity! CoreLogic forecasts that home prices will increase by 4.8% by the end of the year.
If you are a homeowner who would like to find out your current home value, let’s get together to discuss the hidden opportunities in your home!
January 31, 2019
Purchase applications were down this week after soaring early in the year. However, softening house price appreciation along with increasing inventory of homes on the market – and historically low mortgage rates – should give a boost to the spring homebuying season.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic New Year!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!