Happy Monday, September 10, 2018
In August 2018, the Wesely Chapel housing market favored sellers.
The number of homes for sale rose 9.8% from August 2017 and dropped 3.6% from July 2018. The number of homes sold decreased 9.9% from a year ago and increased 0.7% from a month ago. The number of homes under contract jumped 16.6% compared to July 2018 and 5% compared to August 2017. The Months of Inventory (based on Closed Sales) came in at 2.6 months, up 23.3% from August of last year.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage increased 2.3% compared to July 2018 and 5.6% compared to last year. The Median Sold Price climbed 2.6% from July 2018. The Average Sold Price rose by 2.9% compared to July 2018. So based on the 6-month trend, the Average Sold Price trend is “Neutral” and the Median Sold Price trend is “Neutral.”
The Average Days on Market showed a downward trend, rising by 27.5% compared to August 2017. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price was 97%, an increase of 1% from August 2017.
Home Sales (Sold)
In August 2018, 145 homes sold, a drop of 9.9% August of 2017 when 161 sold. That was also 0.7% higher than the 144 sales in July 2018.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
The total number of homes for sale jumped by 34 units or 9.8% compared to a year ago. The amount of current inventory rose 3.6% compared to a month ago.
Property Under Contract (Pended)
Homes under contract (pending) increased by 16.6% compared to last month and 5% compared to last year.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage shows the direction of property values. The “mix” of high-end or low-end homes sold can skew the Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price, so the Average Sold Price per Square Footage can provide a more normalized indicator of the direction of home values. In August 2018, the Average Sold Price per Square Footage was $131, up 2.3% from $128 in July 2018. That was up 5.6% from $124 in August 2017.
The Days on Market Shows Downward Trend
The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, while a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for August 2018 was 51, the same as last month and up 27.5% from 40 days in August of last year.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are decreasing their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price held steady at 97%, the same as June 2018 and 1% higher than in August 2017.
The Average For Sale Price is Neutral
The Average For Sale Price in August 2018 of $370,000 fell 3.1% from $382,000 in August of 2017. It ticked up 0.3% from $371,000 in July 2018.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in August of $315,000 increased 4% from $303,000 in August of 2017. It rose 2.9% from $306,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral
The Median Sold Price in July was $280,000, up 1.4% from $276,000 in August of 2017 and down 2.6% from $273,000 in July 2018.
It’s a Seller’s Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The August 2018 Months of Inventory of 2.6 months increased 23.3% compared to last year and decreased 3.7% compared to last month.
Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The August 2018 Absorption Rate was 38.2%. This was a 17.8% drop compared to August 2017 and 4.7% jump compared to July 2018.
WESLEY CHAPEL, Fla. — Four months have come and gone since Wesley Chapel’s Crystal Lagoon was supposed to open, and residents are growing more and more anxious waiting for the opening that was promised back in April.
“Definitely the lagoon is the big attraction,” Sue Queen, an Epperson Ranch resident said to ABC Action News.
We caught Queen and a few of her friends out for a walk. For a large portion of that walk, they have to look over the beautiful lagoon that they were only able to use once.
“It’s been exciting seeing the slides go up, and the Wii Fit go up,” she said.
Like Queen, hundreds of residents have moved into the Wesley Chapel area in anticipation of the peace, paradise and one-of-a-kind pool.
Originally, the Crystal Lagoon was set to open at the end of April.
From the Blog:
Home prices are at the top of everyone’s minds. Can they maintain their current pace of appreciation? Will rising mortgage rates negatively impact home values? Will the next economic slowdown cause prices to crash?
Let’s try to answer these questions based on what has happened in the past as well as what we know about the current real estate market.
The Impact of Rising Interest Rates
We explained earlier this year that rising mortgage rates have not negatively impacted home prices in the past and probably wouldn’t this time either. Freddie Mac’s comments were very direct:
“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”
They were correct. So far this year, home values have continued to appreciate above normal historic percentages and it appears the gradual increase in rates has had little impact on prices.
The Impact of an Economic Slowdown
Many people fear that when the economy turns, we may see the same depreciation in home values as we did a decade ago.
However, we recently reported that the same group of economists, real estate experts, and investment & market strategists who predicted the next recession will occur in the next 18-24 months have also projected that house prices will continue to appreciate for the next five years, albeit at smaller percentages.
It Comes Down to Supply and Demand
As always, home prices will be determined by the demand to purchase compared to the available inventory of homes for sale. For the last six years, demand has far exceeded the available supply which has resulted in the average annual appreciation to top 6% since 2012. That is far greater than the historic norm of 3.6% annual appreciation that we saw prior to the housing boom.
There are currently small signs that housing inventory is slowly beginning to increase. Months supply of houses for sale matched last year’s numbers for the last two months after 37 consecutive months of decreasing inventory. New construction data has also shown positive signs that inventory will be increasing.
As inventory begins to meet demand, we will see appreciation return to more normal levels. We are already seeing projections coming in lower than the 6.2% annual average we have seen more recently.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:
“We’re seeing the first indications that price appreciation may be slowing, but the underlying fundamental housing market conditions support a natural moderation of house prices rather than a sharp decline.”
Here’s some promising news for self-employed entrepreneurs, “gig” economy workers and small business owners: There’s a bipartisan push underway on Capitol Hill to make the home-mortgage process a lot easier for you.
For years, federal lending rules have favored applicants with easily documentable incomes — people who can show underwriters pay stubs, W-2s and two years of steady income plus the likelihood it will continue. The same rules have made it more challenging for people who work for themselves, earn money at multiple jobs or have big seasonal swings in what they earn.
Say you’re a Lyft driver and you run a cash-intensive food truck business on the side. You earn good money and you have decent credit scores and savings, but your income jumps around from month to month depending on sales. You’re likely to have a hard time convincing lenders about your total income — it’s not steady, and at least some of it can be difficult to document. Your loan officer may end up saying: Sorry, I can’t fit your income pattern into the boxes mandated by federal qualified-mortgage (QM) regulations, so I just can’t do your loan.
This may not knock you out of the mortgage market entirely, but it could force you to pay a higher interest rate or make a larger down payment elsewhere from a lender who offers non-qualified mortgages (non-QM) on less favorable terms.
Enter the proposed Self-Employed Mortgage Access Act, co-sponsored by Sens Mark R. Warner, a Virginia Democrat, and Mike Rounds, a Republican from South Dakota. It would expand lenders’ permissible sources to verify incomes beyond the relatively narrow range specified in current federal QM regulations.
According to Warner, as many as 42 million Americans — roughly 30 percent of the workforce — are self-employed or in the gig economy (those who work gig-to-gig, for cash or on short-term freelance contracts).
“Too many of these otherwise creditworthy individuals are being shut out of the mortgage market because they don’t have the same documentation of their income — pay stubs or W-2s — as someone who works 9 to 5,” said Warner in introducing the bill.
Historically low inventory and years of pent-up demand in Greater Boston have combined to create a market that favors sellers and pits home buyers against one another. Buyers who know what sellers want can craft a winning offer in a crowded field without putting themselves at risk.
September 6, 2018
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched higher for the second straight week.
Borrowing costs may be slowly on the rise again in coming weeks, as investors remain optimistic about the underlying strength of the economy. It’s important to note that mortgage rates are now up three-quarters of a percentage point from last year and home prices – albeit at a slower pace – are still outrunning rising inflation and incomes.
This weakening in affordability is hindering many interested buyers this fall, even as the robust economy brings them into the market. The good news is that purchase mortgage applications have recently rebounded to above year ago levels.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic New Year!
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Have a Fantastic week!