Happy Monday, January 6, 2020
In December 2019 single-family home sales favored sellers.
For Sale Listings fell 16.2% from December 2018 and 4.8% from November 2019. Homes Sold rose 36.4% year over year and 1.4% month over month. Under Contract Listings declined 28.1% compared to November 2019 but increased 11.1% compared to December 2018. The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 2.2 months was down 39.2% from December 2018.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage decreased 2.9% compared to November 2019 but climbed 7.3% compared to December 2018. The Median Sold Price fell 10.9% from November 2019. The Average Sold Price declined 6.1% from November 2019.
The Average Days on Market dropped 4.1% compared to the previous December. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% was 1.1% lower than in December 2018. Home Sales (Sold)
In December 2019, 146 single-family homes sold in Wesley Chapel. That’s 36.4% more than the 107 sold in December 2018. It’s 1.4% higher than the 144 sales in December 2019.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
In December 2019, the total number of single-family homes for sale decreased by 62 units or 16.2%. The number of homes for sale dropped 4.8% compared to November 2019.
Homes Under Contract (Pending)
In December 2019, Homes Under Contract declined 28.1% to 100 homes from 139 In November 2019. December’s pending home sales jumped 11.1% compared to December 2018.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage indicates which direction home prices are headed. Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can sometimes be skewed by outliers that sell for a really high or low price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator of home values. The December 2019 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $132 decreased 2.9% from $136 in November 2019. It increased 7.3% from $123 in December 2018.
The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend
The Average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for December 2019 of 71 days fell 12.3% from 81 days in November 2019. It was down 4.1% from 74 days in December 2018.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to decrease their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100%, the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. December’s Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% stayed the same as November 2019 and increased 1.1% % compared to December 2018.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in December of $308,000 rose 10% from $280,000 in December 2018 but dropped 6.1% from $328,000 in November 2019.
December was a Seller’s Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
The Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The December 2019 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 45.6 jumped 62.8% compared to December 2018 and 6.3% compared to November 2019.
Lush Life: Ellington & Strayhorn: The Florida Orchestra celebrates the work of serial collaborators Duke Ellington and Billy Strayhorn. Guest Byron Stripling conducts and plays trumpet. $18 and up. 8 p.m. Friday at the David A. Straz Jr. Center for the Performing Arts, 1010 N MacInnes Place, Tampa; 2 and 8 p.m. Saturday at the Mahaffey Theater, 400 First St. S, St. Petersburg. floridaorchestra.org.
Sacred Art Tour of Tibetan Monks: Watch eight Tibetan monks from India as they revisit St. Petersburg to create an intricate sand mandala. The opening ceremony is at 10:15 a.m. Tuesday. Runs through Sunday. Florida CraftArt, 501 Central Ave. (727) 821-7391. floridacraftart.org.
Epiphany: Following the Hierarchical Divine Liturgy, Archbishop Elpidophoros, clergy, dignitaries and thousands of others line up for a procession to Spring Bayou. There, a dove is released and the Archbishop casts a white cross into the water for young men to dive for, attempting to be the first to retrieve it. Free. 10 a.m. today. St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Cathedral, 36 N Pinellas Ave., Tarpon Springs. (727) 937-3540.
Real Music, Real Masters: Busch Gardens’ longest-running music series returns this week with Leonard, Coleman and Blunt, former lead singers of the Temptations, Platters and Drifters. Included with admission. Runs through March 15. 11:30 a.m. Tuesday-Sunday. 10165 N McKinley Drive, Tampa. (813) 884-4386. buschgardens.com.
Air Supply: Celebrating 45 years, the duo of Graham Russell and Russell Hitchcock are the soft-rock balladeers known for hits Lost in Love, All Out of Love and more. $50 and up. 8 p.m. Ruth Eckerd Hall, 1111 N McMullen-Booth Road, Clearwater. (727) 791-7400. rutheckerdhall.com.
Winter Jam: Christian music’s annual multi-artist showcase brings fan-favorite headliner Crowder, plus renowned worshippers Passion and acclaimed pastor Louie Giglio. $15. 6 p.m. Saturday. Amalie Arena, 401 Channelside Drive, Tampa. (813) 301-6500. Visit amaliearena.com for the full lineup.
We’ve Only Just Begun: Carpenters Remembered: Accomplished vocalist Michelle Berting Brett takes center stage, alongside her band of Nashville musicians directed by Harry Sharpe, to pay homage to the pop music phenoms who defined an era. $30 and up. 7:30 p.m. Wednesday. Mahaffey Theater. (727) 300-2000.
The Bronx Wanderers: The doo-wop, pop, rock ‘n’ rollers perform classics spanning six decades. $29 and up. 7:30 p.m. Sunday. Ruth Eckerd Hall.
CBDB: This Alabama progressive rock jam-band has played major festivals across the country. They’re joined by Ella Jet and Future Soul and Row Jomah. $12 and up. 8 p.m. Friday. Crowbar, 1812 N 17th St., Tampa. (813) 241-8600. crowbarybor.com.
Easton Corbin: The country music singer’s self-titled debut album, released in 2010, features two No. 1 hits: A Little More Country Than That and Roll With It. $30 and up. 10 p.m. Friday. The Dallas Bull, 3322 U.S. 301, Tampa. (813) 987-2855. dallasbull.com.
A Shayna Maidel: This drama from Innovocative Theatre follows Lusia, who is reunited with her sister and father in America after surviving World War II. Through a series of memories and fantasies, Lusia explores the joys and sorrows of her life before the war. Runs through Jan. 19. Stageworks Theatre, 1120 E Kennedy Blvd., Tampa. (813) 374-2416. For showtimes, visit stageworkstheatre.com.
Agleam Poetry: Let Your Voice Be Heard: Accompanied by a live band, award-winning national spoken word artists appear in a performance that combines poetry, hip-hop, literature, visual art and music. $21.38 and up. 4 p.m. Sunday. Jaeb Theater at the Straz Center. (813) 229-7827.
Luminaries of Glass: This group exhibition includes the work of Richard Jolley, Deanna Clayton and Lisabeth Sterling, who plan to attend the opening reception. Free. 5 p.m. Saturday. Duncan McClellan Gallery, 2342 Emerson Ave. S, St. Petersburg. (727) 421-4141. dmglass.com.
Andrew Schulz: The New York native was YouTube’s most viewed standup comic in 2018 and 2019, and his debut comedy album 551 was No. 1 on Billboard. $25. 8 and 10:30 p.m. Friday, 7:30 and 10 p.m. Saturday. Tampa Improv, 1600 E Eighth Ave. (813) 864-4000. improvtampa.com.
KIDS AND FAMILY
Chili & Salsa Bowl: Now in its 10th year, this food competition invites you to taste chili and salsa samples, then cast your vote for the People’s Choice award. Live music, games, prizes and face painting are also planned. Benefits Humane Society of Tampa Bay. $10. 1 p.m. Saturday. Countryside Country Club, 3001 Countryside Blvd., Clearwater. eventbrite.com.
Beach Polo Classic: Professional polo teams play three-on-three matches over two days on the sand. Seating is limited. Free, $30 and up guaranteed seat. 2 and 4 p.m. Saturday, 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. Sunday. The Don CeSar, 3400 Gulf Blvd., St. Pete Beach. eventbrite.com.
MORE TO EXPLORE
Find date night ideas and things to do with kids at tampabay.com/things-to-do.
Outside of a strong economy, low unemployment, and higher wages, there are three more great reasons why you may want to consider buying your dream home this year instead of waiting.
1. Buying a Home is a Great Investment
Several reports indicate that real estate is a good investment, topping other options such as gold, stocks, bonds, and savings. Why? Real estate helps build equity, a form of investing for you and your family. According to CoreLogic’s Equity Report,
“U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 64% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $457 billion since the third quarter 2018, an increase of 5.1%, year over year.”
This means the average homeowner gained approximately $5,300 in equity over the past year. If you want to start building your equity, put your housing costs to work for you through homeownership this year.
2. Mortgage Interest Rates Are Low
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac indicates that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have fallen since November 2018 when they hit 4.94%. In their latest forecast, Freddie Mac expects rates to remain low, leveling out to a yearly average of 3.8% in 2020.
When you purchase a home at a low mortgage rate, it will impact your monthly mortgage payment, giving you the opportunity to buy more house for your money.
3. Investing in Your Family is a Win
There are some renters who haven’t purchased a home yet because they’re uncomfortable taking on the obligation of a mortgage. Everyone should realize that, unless you’re living rent-free with your parents, you’re paying a mortgage – either yours or that of your landlord.
Today, rental prices continue to increase, and when you’re paying your landlord’s mortgage instead of your own, you’re not the one earning the equity. As an owner, your mortgage payment is a form of ‘forced savings’ you can use later in life to reinvest in your family. You can use it for a variety of opportunities, such as saving for your children’s education, moving up to a bigger home, or starting your own business. As a renter, it can be more challenging to achieve those types of dreams without home equity working for you.
Buying a home sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings and long-term financial growth for you and your family. Let’s get together to determine if homeownership is the right choice for you this year.
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This will be an interesting year for residential real estate. With a presidential election taking place this fall and talk of a possible recession occurring before the end of the year, predicting what will happen in the 2020 U.S. housing market can be challenging. As a result, taking a look at the combined projections from the most trusted entities in the industry when it comes to mortgage rates, home sales, and home prices is incredibly valuable – and they may surprise you.
Projections from the experts at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac all forecast mortgage rates remaining stable throughout 2020:Since rates have remained under 5% for the last decade, we may not fully realize the opportunity we have right now.
Here are the average mortgage interest rates over the last several decades:
- 1970s: 8.86%
- 1980s: 12.70%
- 1990s: 8.12%
- 2000s: 6.29%
Three of the four expert groups noted above also predict an increase in home sales in 2020, and the fourth sees the transaction number remaining stable:With mortgage rates remaining near all-time lows, demand should not be a challenge. The lack of available inventory, however, may moderate the increase in sales.
Below are the projections from six different expert entities that look closely at home values: CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Ivy Zelman’s “Z Report”, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).Each group has home values continuing to improve through 2020, with four of them seeing price appreciation increasing at a greater pace than it did in 2019.
Is a Recession Possible?
In early 2019, a large percentage of economists began predicting a recession may occur in 2020. In addition, a recent survey of potential home purchasers showed that over 50% agreed it would occur this year. The economy, however, remained strong in the fourth quarter, and that has caused many to rethink the possibility.
For example, Goldman Sachs, in their 2020 U.S. Outlook, explained:
“Markets sounded the recession alarm this year, and the average forecaster now sees a 33% chance of recession over the next year. In contrast, our new recession model suggests just a 20% probability. Despite the record age of the expansion, the usual late-cycle problems—inflationary overheating and financial imbalances—do not look threatening.”
Mortgage rates are projected to remain under 4%, causing sales to increase in 2020. With growing demand and a limited supply of inventory, prices will continue to appreciate, while the threat of an impending recession seems to be softening. It looks like 2020 may be a solid year for the real estate market.
January 2, 2020
The combination of improved economic data and market sentiment has led to stability in mortgage rates, which have hovered around 3.7 percent for nearly the last two months. The stability is welcome news after the interest rate turbulence of the last year, which caused a slowdown in the housing market and other interest rate sensitive sectors. The low mortgage rate environment combined with the red-hot labor market is setting the stage for a continued rise in home sales and home prices.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic Day!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!