Happy Monday, August 3, 2020
July 2020 favored Sellers!
Single-Family Homes for Sale fell 48.7% from July 2019 but rose 8.5% from June 2020. Single-Family Homes Sold decreased 9.4% year over year but increased 16.4% month over month. Single-Family Homes Under Contract dropped 3.1% compared to June 2020 but jumped 36% compared to July 2019.
The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales hit 1.3 months, down 46.6% from July of last year.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage stayed flat compared to June 2019 but climbed 4.5% compared to July of last year. The Median Sold Price declined 4.8% from June of this year. The Average Sold Price fell 6.1% during the same time period.
The Average Days on Market dropped 13.4% compared to July 2019. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price was 93%, a decrease of 4.1% compared to July 2019.
Home Sales (Sold)
In July 2020, 163 single-family homes sold in Wesley Chapel. Thats was 9.4% fewer than the 180 sold in July 2019. It was 16.4% higher than the 140 sales In June 2020.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
In July 2020, 207 fewer single-family homes were listed for sale in Wesley Chapel than in July 2019. That’s a drop of 48.7%. Current inventory rose 8.5% compared to June 2019.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage indicates which direction home prices are headed. Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can sometimes be skewed by outliers that sell for a really high or low price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator of home values. The July 2020 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $138 held steady compared to June 2020. It climbed 4.5% from $132 in July of last year.
The Days on Market Shows Downward Trend
The Average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for July 2020 of 58 days stayed the same as June 2020. It decreased 13.4% from 67 days in July 2019.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Is Falling
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to decrease their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100%, the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. July 2020’s Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 93% dropped 5.1% from this June and 4.1% from July of last year.
The Average For Sale Price is Neutral
The Average For Sale Price in July was $381,000, up 5.2% from $362,000 in July 2019 and down 6.8% from $409,000 in June 2020.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in July was $321,000, up 1.6% from $316,000 in July 2019 and down 6.1% from $342,000 in June 2020.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral
The Median Sold Price in July was $300,000, up 4.9% from $286,000 in July 2019 and down 4.8% from $315,000 in June 2020.
July 2020 was a Seller’s Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The July 2020 Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 1.3 months plunged 46.6% compared to July 2019. It declined 7% compared to June 2020.
The Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The July 2020 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 74.8 leaped 76.5% compared to July 2019. It rose 7.3% compared to June of this year.
So far, it’s been quite a ride this year, and our nation has truly seen its fair share of hurdles. From COVID-19 to record unemployment and then the resulting recession, just to name a few, the second quarter of 2020 has had more than a few challenges. Amidst the many roadblocks, however, the U.S. homeownership rate rose again, signaling great strength in the recovery of the housing market and an indication that even in a time of crisis, Americans still feel confident about buying a home.
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau announced:
“The homeownership rate of 67.9 percent was 3.8 percentage points higher than the rate in the second quarter 2019 (64.1 percent) and 2.6 percentage points higher than the rate in the first quarter 2020 (65.3 percent).”
The increase is also represented by race and ethnicity of the householder:There are many reasons why the homeownership rate in this country is rising, and one of the key factors is historically-low mortgage rates. Rates hovering at all-time lows are helping to drive affordability and enabling more potential homeowners to enter the market today. According to Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist for Haus:
“Mortgage rates are the icing on the cake for households that were thinking about buying…They found an unexpected opportunity during the worst economic downturn America has seen since the Great Depression.”
In addition, many potential homebuyers have been using their time this year to search for homes that offer more space than their current rental apartments. Many of these homebuyers are younger and, as noted by Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, are the buyers driving the homeownership rate in an upward direction:
“Big jump in the homeownership rate today, mostly driven by younger households. We saw a spike in the number of owners, and a decline in the number of renters. This is the highest rate of homeownership since 2008.”
This growth is outstanding news for the housing market and for those who have recently found their new homes. If homeownership is on your shortlist this year, maybe now is a great time to meet with a real estate professional to evaluate your current situation. Perhaps historically low mortgage rates can help you to become a homeowner too.
If you’re thinking of buying a home this year, let’s connect today to take your dream one step closer to reality.
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As remote work continues on for many businesses and Americans weigh the risks of being in densely populated areas, will more people start to move out of bigger cities? Spending extra time at home and dreaming of more indoor and outdoor space is certainly sparking some interest among homebuyers. Early data shows an initial trend in this direction of moving from urban to suburban communities, but the question is: will the trend continue?
According to recent data from Zillow, there is a current surge in urban high-end listings in some larger metro areas. The month-over-month increase in these homes going on the market indicates more urban homeowners may be ready to make a move out of the city, particularly at the upper end of the market (See graph below):
Why are people starting to move out of larger cities?
With the ongoing health crisis, it’s no surprise that many people are starting to consider this shift. A July survey from HomeLight notes the top reasons people are actually moving today:
- More interior space
- Desire to own
- Move from city to suburbs
- More outdoor space
More space, proximity to fewer people, and a desire to own at a more affordable price point are highly desirable features in this new era, so the list makes sense.
John Burns Consulting notes:
“The trend is accelerating faster than anyone could have predicted. The need for more space is driving suburban migration.”
In addition, Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison, a home building company, indicates:
“Most recently, we’re really seeing a pickup in folks saying they want more rural or suburban locations. Initially, there was a lot of talk about that, but it’s really coming through our buyers today.”
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) also shares:
“New home demand is improving in lower density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek out larger homes and anticipate more flexibility for telework in the years ahead. Flight to the suburbs is real.”
Will the shift pick up speed and continue on?
The question remains, will this interest in suburban and rural living continue? Some, like Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) think the possibility is there, but it is still quite early to tell for sure. Yun notes:
“Homebuyers considering a move to the suburbs is a growing possibility after a decade of urban downtown revival…Greater work-from-home options and flexibility will likely remain beyond the virus and any forthcoming vaccine.”
While much of the energy behind this trend has largely been accelerated by the current health crisis, monitoring the momentum over time is critically important. Businesses are discovering new and innovative ways to function in remote environments, so the shift has the potential to stick. Much like the economic recovery, however, the long-term impact may hinge largely on the health situation throughout this country.
Early data is showing a shift from urban to suburban markets, but keeping an eye on this trend will help us understand how it will ultimately play out. It may just be a temporary swing in a new direction until Americans once again feel a sense of comfort in the cities they’ve grown to love.
July 30, 2020
Rates continue to remain near historic lows, driving purchase demand over 20 percent above a year ago. Real estate is one of the bright spots in the economy, with strong demand and modest slowdown in home prices heading into the late summer. Home sales should remain strong the next few months into the early fall.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic Day!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!