Happy Monday, October 15, 2018
In September 2018, 19.6% more single-family homes were listed for sale in New Tampa than in September of 2017. Compared to August 2018, listings jumped 13%. The number of homes that sold fell 10.3% year over year and 31.4% month over month. The number of listings under contract also dropped 31.3% compared to last month and 9.5% compared to last year. The Months of Inventory, which measure the available supply of homes for sale, increased to 3.8 months, up 31.2% from the same period in 2017.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage increased 6.3% compared to September 2018 and 7.2% compared to last month. The Median Sold Price (the price above which half the homes sold for) ticked down 0.9% from last month, while the Average Sold Price rose 2.6% compared to August 2018. Based on the 6-month trend, the Average Sold Price and the Median Sold Price trend is neutral. This means neither buyers or sellers have the advantage.
The Average Days on Market remained neutral, increasing 3.4% compared to September 2017. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price was 95%, 1.1% higher than a year ago.
Home Sales (Sold)
In September 2018, 70 homes sold, 10.3% less than the 78 that sold in September of 2017 and 31.4% lower than the 102 sales in August 2018.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
The total number of homes for sale rose by 44 units or 19.6% compared to a year ago at this time and 13% compared to a month ago.
Property Under Contract (Pended)
Homes under contract (pending) declined by 30.3% compared to last month, but jumped 9.5% compared to last September.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage indicates the direction of property values. In September 2018, the Average Sold Price per Square Footage was $134, up 7.2% from $125 in August 2018 and 6.3% from $126 in September 2017.
The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend
The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days, on average, homes stay on the market before they sell. If this measure trends upward it indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, but if it trends downward it indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for September 2018 was 56, down 3.4% from 60 days last month and up 3.4% from 58 days in September 2017.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price shows the average amount that sellers are decreasing their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price held steady at 95% compared to last month, but rose 1.1% from last September.
The Average For Sale Price is Neutral*
The Average For Sale Price in September of $441,000 decreased 2.9% from $454,000 in September of 2017 and 2% from $450,000 in August 2018.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral*
The Average Sold Price in September of $351,000 rose 8.3% from $324,000 in September of 2017 and 2.6% from $342,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral*
The Median Sold Price in September was $329,000, up 11.1% from $296,000 in September of 2017 and down 0.9% from $332,000 in August 2018.
*Based on 6-month trend
It’s a Seller’s Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The September 2018 Months of Inventory jumped to 3.8 or 31.2% higher than September 2017 and 64.3% higher than a month ago.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The September 2018 the Absorption Rate was 26, 25.1% lower than a year ago and 39.4% lower than a month ago. This indicator remains neutral, but is moving toward favoring the buyer.
Thousands of Tampa Bay-area property owners could soon find themselves with new flood zone designations on their homes and businesses.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has completed a years-long study to update flood zone maps in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties. The maps represent the government’s estimate of flood risk on a parcel-by-parcel basis and ultimately determine what people pay for flood insurance.
Emergency managers say it’s still too early to say how many property owners may be required to obtain flood insurance who don’t have it now. Nor can they say how many could see their insurance rates fluctuate due to a new designation, either higher or lower.
“There is no formal number on how many parcels are impacted,” said Rahim Harji, assistant Pinellas County administrator.
So far, federal officials have released the what they call preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps for Pasco and Pinellas.
From the Blog:
According to CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Insights Report, national home prices in August were up 5.5% from August 2017. This marks the first time since June 2016 that home prices did not appreciate by at least 6.0% year-over-year.
CoreLogic’s Chief Economist Frank Nothaft gave some insight into this change,
“The rise in mortgage rates this summer to their highest level in seven years has made it more difficult for potential buyers to afford a home. The slackening in demand is reflected in the slowing of national appreciation, as illustrated in the CoreLogic Home Price Index.
National appreciation in August was the slowest in nearly two years, and we expect appreciation to slow further in the coming year.”
One of the major factors that has driven prices to accelerate at a pace of between 6-7% over the past two years was the lack of inventory available for sale in many areas of the country. This made houses a prized commodity which forced many buyers into bidding wars and drove prices even higher.
According to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report, we are starting to see more inventory come to market over the last few months. This, paired with patient buyers who are willing to wait to find the right homes, is creating a natural environment for price growth to slow.
Historically, prices appreciated at a rate of 3.7% (from 1987-1999). CoreLogic predicts that prices will continue to rise over the next year at a rate of 4.7%.
As the housing market moves closer to a ‘normal market’ with more inventory for buyers to choose from, home prices will start to appreciate at a more ‘normal’ level, and that’s ok! If you are curious about home prices in your area, let’s get together to chat about what’s going on!
Mortgage rates crossed the 5 percent line on Wednesday for the first time since 2011, marking a new era for a generation of Americans raised on super-low borrowing rates and highlighting the downside of a burgeoning national economy.
Strengthening economic growth, near-record low unemployment, inflation rates and policy moves by the Federal Reserve have all contributed to move the needle beyond the psychological 5 percent barrier.
“It has only been in this decade that they have fallen below 5 percent, rates not seen since the 1960s,” said David Reiss, an expert in real estate law and professor at the Brooklyn Law School.
From 1971 through early October 2008, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 8.1 percent. The day before Halloween 1981, the number spiked at 18.44 percent, according to data from Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage rebundler.
Psychology aside, there’s a real money impact as well. Every increase of 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, means another $6 per month per $100,000 of mortgage, said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.
Over the last year, the mortgage on a typically priced home of $295,000 has increased by $115 to $120 a month.
Spring is generally the most popular time of year to sell a house, with hordes of buyers looking to move into a new place before the school year begins. But if you decide to sell your home during the winter, experts say you could reap a reward in cold, hard cash.
“I have personally had my best months in real estate during the holiday season, so the idea that the markets are very tough to sell in the winter might be a myth,” says Emil Hartoonian, managing partner of The Agency in Beverly Hills, CA.
He’s not the only one who believes selling in the winter can make you a real estate winner. Read on for the top reasons why you should consider unloading when the temperatures drop.
October 11, 2018
In this week’s survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped 19 basis points to 4.90 percent. Rates are now at their highest level since the week of April 14, 2011.
Rising rates paired with high and escalating home prices is putting downward pressure on purchase demand. While the monthly payment remains affordable due to the still low mortgage rate environment, the primary hurdle for many borrowers today is the down payment and that is the reason home sales have decreased in many high-priced markets.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic New Year!
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Have a Fantastic week!