Happy Veterans Day, November 11, 2019
First, I want to say thank you to all of you who have served in the military and fought for our freedoms.
In October 2019, the New Tampa (33647) single-family housing market favored sellers.
Single-family Home for Sale in New Tampa fell 6.4% from October 2018 and 3.7% from September 2019. Homes Sold increased 21.1% year over year and 48.4% month over month. Homes Under Contract climbed 27.9% compared to September 0f this year and 50.7% compared to October of last year.
The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales is 2.5 months, a decline of 24.3% from the October 2018. The Average Sold Price per Square Footage rose 0.8% compared to September 2019 and 3.1% compared to October 2018. The Median Sold Price increased jumped 3.3% and The Average Sold Price decreased by 0.3% from September 2019.
The Average Days on Market dropped 3.1% compared to October a year ago. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% went up 1.1% compared to October 2018.
Home Sales (Sold)
In October 2019, single-family homes sold climbed 21.1% from 76 in October 2018 to 92 in October 2019. New Tampa’s single-family homes sold rose 48.4% compared to the 62 sales in September 2019.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
In October 2019, 16 more single-family homes were listed for sale in New Tampa. That’s 6.4% more than October 2018. For sale listings fell 3.7% from September 2019.
Homes Under Contract (Pending)
In October 2019, homes under contract jumped 27.9%, as 110 single-family homes were pending compared to 86 in September 2019. That was 50.7% higher than in October 2018.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage indicates which direction home prices are headed. Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can sometimes be skewed by outliers that sell for a really high or low price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator of home values. The October 2019 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $131 increased 0.8% from $130 in September 2019 and 3.1% from $127 in October 2018.
The Days on Market Shows Neutral Trend
The Average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for October 2019 was 62, up 14.8% from 54 days last month and down 3.1% from 64 days in October of last year.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to decrease their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100%, the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. October’s Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% rose 2.1% % from September of this year and 1.1% from October of last year.
The Average For Sale Price in October of $440,000 declined 1.6% from
$447,000 in October 2018 and increased 0.7% from $437,000 in September 2019.
The Average Sold Price is Depreciating
The Average Sold Price in October of $363,000 climbed 4% from $349,000 in October 2018 and ticked down 0.3% from $364,000 in September of this year.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral
The Median Sold Price in October of $345,000 jumped 5.8% from $326,000 in October 2018 and 3.3% from $334,000 in September 2019.
October was a Seller’s Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The October 2019 Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 2.5 months fell by 24.3% compared to October 2018 and 35.7% compared to September 2019.
Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The October 2019 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 39.3 rose 29.3% compared to October 2018 and 54.1% compared to September 2019.
Veterans Day: Monday is Veterans Day and there are tributes starting at 10 a.m. at Veterans Memorial Park in Tampa, and at 7 p.m. in Largo Central Park. And at the VA Medical Center and National Cemetery at Bay Pines in St. Petersburg, retired U.S. Marine Corps Cpl. Mike DeLancey, a Purple Heart recipient and the founder of the Wounded Warriors Abilities Ranch in Pinellas Park, will be the keynote speaker at a celebration that starts at 11 a.m.
Julie Andrews: The practically perfect Mary Poppins will be at Ruth Eckerd Hall on Wednesday to answer questions from the audience about her storied career. ($72.50 and up).
WQYK Guitar Pull: The country station brings a lineup of singer-songwriters including Carly Pearce (Every Little Thing), Morgan Wallen (Whiskey Glasses), Chase Rice (Eyes On You), Jordan Davis (Singles You Up) and Hardy (Rednecker). $55 and up on Sunday at the Mahaffey Theater in St. Petersburg.
Music: The indie/punk rock group Titus Andronicus brings its screaming vocals to Crowbar in Ybor on Tuesday ($16-18). The retro-sounding road warriors Vintage Trouble make their Clearwater debut at the Bilheimer Capitol Theatre on Tuesday ($29-$50). On Wednesday, English solo indie-pop artist The Japanese House performs along with Our Girl at Crowbar ($18). Grammy winner Chip Davis brings Mannheim Steamroller Christmas to the Mahaffey on Wednesday ($46.50). The a cappella group Straight No Chaser perform a medley of contemporary and classic hits Thursday at the Straz Center ($29.50). Third Eye Blind brings its Screamer tour to Jannus Live on Thursday with special guests Smallpools ($36.25-$43.50). Nashville’s John Paul White performs an acoustic set at the Attic at Rock Brothers in Ybor ($20). Electric Wizard plays Jannus Live on Friday ($27.50). Country great Dwight Yoakam performs a variety of cuts from across his discography, including a bluegrass re-imagining of Prince’s Purple Rain, to Ruth Eckerd Hall on Friday ($43.25 and up). The Wizards of Winter, former members of Trans-Siberian Orchestra and other rock bands, perform a holiday rock opera titled The Christmas Dream on Friday at the Capitol Theatre ($29-$52). On Friday, the Doobie Brothers play their iconic hits at the Mahaffey Theater ($59.50-$253.50). Static-X celebrates the 20th anniversary of their album Wisconsin Death Trip at the Orpheum on Saturday ($30). The atmospheric indie rock band Turnover play the Ritz Ybor on Saturday ($24-$45), and then later that night at 10, Grammy-nominated electronic outfit The Crystal Method play the Ritz ($15). Electronic musician Com Truise performs at Crowbar on Saturday ($20).
Comedy: Some big names in comedy are here this week including the King of Queens star Kevin James returning to stand-up at Ruth Eckerd Hall on Saturday ($43.25-$93.25). At the Straz on Sunday, John Leguizamo’s Latin History for Morons is the actor’s one-man-play inspired from the lack of Latinos in his son’s American history books ($35-$95). Comedian Damon Wayans is at the Tampa Improv Friday-Sunday ($40-$50). And you can catch a true comic’s comic for his raw, personal and often political comedy when Doug Stanhope plays Improv on Thursday ( $45)
Disenchanted: The show populated with the original storybook heroines hilariously poke holes in the age-old tenets of The Princess Complex with brassy Snow White at the lead. It opens Thursday through Nov. 24 in the Jaeb Theater at the Straz Center for the Performing Arts in Tampa ($37.50 and up).
Jay and Silent Bob Reboot Roadshow: Jason Mewes and Kevin Smith, the New Jersey stoner icons who first hit the screen 25 years ago in Clerks, will be at the Tampa Theatre on Thursday to show their latest motion picture, Jay and Silent Bob Reboot, and take questions after. $50. tampatheatre.org
Tampa Auto Show: The show at the Tampa Convention Center presented by MotorTrend serves as a stage for automakers and suppliers to showcase their new models and technologies. Friday-Sunday. $12; $5 seniors, military; free age 12 and younger.
Florida Sportsman Expo: The pages of the Florida Sportsman magazine come alive with fishing seminars, hands-on instruction with pros, a kids’ fish ID scavenger hunt and a live fishing derby in the fairground’s ponds. $8, $4 military, 12 and younger free. Saturday-Sunday at the Florida State Fairgrounds.
Studio Waltz: Take a tour of 12 studios and the work of 16 artists throughout Dunedin and Palm Harbor on Saturday. Find a map at studiowaltz.com. Free.
KIDS AND FAMILY
River Tower Festival: An all-day music festival with kids activities and food trucks on the lawn will raise money to preserve the Sulphur Springs water tower and the surrounding park . $15-$20, 9 and younger free. 11 a.m.-10 p.m. Saturday at River Tower Park in Seminole Heights. preserveourtower.com.
St. Pete Run Fest: With distances for kids, beginners and seasoned runners, the St. Pete Run Fest aims to get the whole city on its feet. The expo and wellness market opens Friday. The 10K, 5K and kids race are Saturday with a post-race party in Albert Whitted Park. Sunday is the half marathon starting at 7 a.m. on Bayshore near the Dali Museum. $20-$160. stpeterunfest.org.
Christmas Town: Busch Gardens is getting a jump on the holidays when the Sing-Along-Train pulls into Christmas Town, delivering a land with millions of twinkling lights, holiday shows and meet and greets with Rudolph and Santa starting Saturday. Included with admission. buschgardens.com
MORE TO EXPLORE
Find date night ideas and things to do with kids at tampabay.com/things-to-do.
Home buying activity (demand) is up, and the number of available listings (supply) is down. When demand outpaces supply, prices appreciate. That’s why firms are beginning to increase their projections for home price appreciation going forward. As an example, CoreLogic increased their 12-month projection for home values from 4.5% to 5.6% over the last few months.
The reacceleration of home values will cause some to again voice concerns about affordability. Just last week, however, First American came out with a data analysis that explains how price is not the only market factor that impacts affordability. They studied prices, mortgage rates, and wages from January through August of this year. Here are their findings:
“In January 2019, a family with the median household income in the U.S. could afford to buy a $373,900 house. By August, that home had appreciated to $395,000, an increase of $21,100.”
Mortgage Interest Rates
“The 0.85 percentage point drop in mortgage rates from January 2019 through August 2019 increased affordability by 9.7%. That translates to a $40,200 improvement in house-buying power in just eight months.”
“As rates have fallen in 2019, the economy has continued to perform well also, resulting in a tight labor market and wage growth. Wage growth pushes household incomes upward, which were 1.5% higher in August compared with January. The growth in household income increased consumer house-buying power by 1.5%, pushing house-buying power up an additional $5,600.”
In the article, Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explained it best:
“Focusing on nominal house price changes alone as an indication of changing affordability, or even the relationship between nominal house price growth and income growth, overlooks what matters more to potential buyers – surging house-buying power driven by the dynamic duo of mortgage rates and income growth. And, we all know from experience, you buy what you can afford to pay per month.”
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Millennials have waited longer than any other generation to become homeowners, but the wait for this cohort is just about over.
According to National Mortgage News,
“Millennials, those young adults now aged 23 to 38, are now entering their peak household formation and homebuying years.”
If you’re a Millennial, you’re already well aware that you’re among a generation of those who favor fast-paced, real-time answers – and results. When you’re ready to make a decision, it’s go-time, and you probably want the latest technology at your fingertips to make it happen.
National Mortgage News agrees, stating,
“Millennials are different than previous generations—not only in their delayed homebuying but also in how they approach interactions with financial institutions, including mortgage lenders. Taking a picture of a check on their phone and depositing it without visiting a branch is not novel, it’s the way Millennials learned to do banking. They expect real-time access to account and transaction data and are frustrated when it’s not available.”
Here’s the catch – the overall speed of the homebuying process can take some time, and it might feel like it is slowing you down. When you’re ready to buy, you can make an offer and go under contract quickly, but the rest of the process might take a little longer. The same article explains why:
“When Millennials apply for a loan, the mortgage lender must qualify the borrower and determine who owns the property, how much the property is worth, and the property’s risk profile. Traditionally, this has been one of the most time-consuming and fragmented parts of the mortgage process…There are many moving pieces, each data point being sourced from a different provider, which can ultimately lead to a lengthy or delayed process.
What has historically been accepted as the process norm does not align with the expectations of the most prominent generation in the home buying market today. Millennials have come to expect rapid, digital workflows in their daily purchase decisions, and in their mind, the home buying process shouldn’t be any different.”
So, where do you go from here?
If you’re pre-approved for a mortgage, that will help speed things up. But the steps it takes and the time to finalize a loan with most traditional lenders may feel like an eternity to you and your generational peers. Don’t worry, though – it’s well worth the wait when you finally get the keys to your new castle!
The financial benefits of homeownership, like increasing your net worth by building equity, and the non-financial benefits, like being able to customize and improve your space, will ultimately set you on the course to happiness, success, overall satisfaction, and much, much more.
If you’re feeling like it’s go-time, let’s get together and get the process moving to determine if homeownership is your next best step.
November 7, 2019
After a year-long slide, mortgage rates hit a cycle low in September 2019 and have risen in six out of the last nine weeks due to modestly better economic data and trade related optimism. The improvement in sentiment has been one of the main drivers behind the surge in equity prices and will provide a halo effect to consumer spending heading into the important holiday shopping season.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic Day!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!