Happy Monday, June 8, 2020
In May 2020, the New Tampa (Zip Code 33647) Single-Family Housing Market favored Sellers.
Single-Family Homes For Sale fell 36.4% from May 2019 and 8.9% from April 2020. Single-Family Homes Sold in New Tampa decreased 33.6% year over year and 4.1% month over month. Homes Under Contract climbed 56.7% compared to April of this year and fell 7.1% compared to the previous May. The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 1.9 months declined 5.1% from May 2019.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage dropped 3.6% compared to April 2020 and rose 1.5% compared to last May. The Median Sold Price decreased 2.3% from April of this year. The Average Sold Price fell 7.3% during the same time period.
Home Sales (Sold)
In May 2020, 71 Single-Family Homes Sold in New Tampa, 33.6% fewer than the 107 sold in May 2019. It was 4.1% fewer than the 74 sales in April 2020.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
Single-Family Homes For Sale declined by 76 units or 36.4% compared to May of last year. Current single-family housing inventory dropped 8.9% compared to April of this year.
Homes Under Contract (Pending)
Single-Family Homes Under Contract jumped 56.7% in May 2020, with 105 homes pending versus 67 in April 2020. That was 7.1% lower in May 2019.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage indicates which direction home prices are headed. Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can sometimes be skewed by outliers that sell for a really high or low price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator of home values. The May 2020 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $132 dropped 3.6% from $137 in April 2020 and rose 1.5% from $130 in May 2019.
The Days on Market Showed a Downward Trend
The Average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for May 2020 of 40 days fell 28.6% from 56 days in April of this year and 37.5% from 64 days in May of last year.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to decrease their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100%, the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. May’s Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 95% stayed flat compared to April 2020 and fell 1% from May 2019.
The Average For Sale Price is Appreciating
The Average For Sale Price in May was $449,000, down 1.1% from $454,000 in May 2019 and up 2.5% from $438,000 in April 2020.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in May was $356,000, down 1.9% from $363,000 in May 2019 7.3% from $384,000 In April 2020.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral
The Median Sold Price in May was $347,000, up 2.4% from $339,000 in May 2019 and down 2.3% from $355,000
in April 2020.
May 2020 was Seller’s market.*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The May 2020 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 53.4 increased 4.3% compared to May 2019 and 5.3% compared to April 2020.
From the Blog:
As we enter the summer months and work through the challenges associated with the current health crisis, many are wondering what impact the economic slowdown will have on home prices. Looking at the big picture, supply and demand will give us the clearest idea of what’s to come.
Making our way through the month of June and entering the second half of the year, we face an undersupply of homes on the market. Keep in mind, this undersupply is going to vary by location and by price point. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), across the country, we currently have a 4.1 months supply of homes on the market. Historically, 6 months of supply is considered a balanced market. Anything over 6 months is a buyer’s market, meaning prices will depreciate. Anything below 6 months is a seller’s market, where prices appreciate. The graph below shows inventory across the country since 2010 in months supply of homes for sale.Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the National Home Builders Association (NAHB) says:
“As the economy begins a recovery later in 2020, we expect housing to play a leading role. Housing enters this recession underbuilt, not overbuilt. Estimates vary, but based on demographics and current vacancy rates, the U.S. may have a housing deficit of up to one million units.”
Given the undersupply of homes on the market today, there is upward pressure on prices. Looking at simple economics, when there is less of an item for sale and the demand is high, consumers are willing to pay more for that item. The undersupply is also prompting bidding wars, which can drive price points higher in the home sale process. According to a recent MarketWatch article:
“As buyers return to the market as the country rebounds from the pandemic, a limited inventory of homes for sale could fuel bidding wars and push prices higher.”
In addition, experts forecasting home prices have updated their projections given the impact of the pandemic. The major institutions expect home prices to appreciate through 2022. The chart below, updated as of earlier this week, notes these forecasts. As the year progresses, we may see these projections revised in a continued upward trend, given the lack of homes on the market. This could drive home prices even higher.
Many may think home prices will depreciate due to the economic slowdown from the coronavirus, but experts disagree. As we approach the second half of this year, we may actually see home prices rise even higher given the lack of homes for sale.
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The travel industry is one of the major sectors that’s been hit extremely hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, it’s hard to know how long it will take for summer travelers to be back in action and for the industry to fully recover. Homeowners who rent their secondary properties on their own or through programs like Airbnb, which has over 660,000 listings in the U.S. alone, have been impacted in this challenging time. Some of these homeowners are considering selling their vacation homes, and understandably so.
A recent CNN article indicated:
“With global travel screeching to a halt during the pandemic, a number of Airbnb hosts are planning to sell their properties…These desperate moves come as hosts face the possibility of losing thousands of dollars a month in canceled bookings while bills, maintenance costs, and mortgage payments pile up.”
If you’re one of the property owners in this position, you too may be feeling the pain of decreased travel, especially as we prepare for the typical busy summer vacation season. A recent survey notes that 48% of Americans have already canceled summer travel plans due to the current health crisis. In addition, 36% indicated they don’t have vacation plans, and only 16% said they did not cancel their summer travel.
The same survey also asked, “How long will you wait before traveling again?” Not surprisingly, only 29% of respondents are planning to travel within the next 6 months. That means 71% are putting their plans on hold for at least 6 months, or are still unsure about future travel. That can continue to add to the significant income loss that many property renters felt this spring.If you’re considering selling your rental property, know that there are two key factors indicating that selling your vacation home now may be your best move as a homeowner.
1. Inventory Shortage
The inventory of overall homes for sale is well below the demand from potential buyers, so many eyes may be searching for a home like yours. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), total housing inventory, meaning homes available to purchase, is down 19.7% from one year ago (see graph below):Inventory across the country continues to be a challenge, with only a 4.1-month supply of listings available at the current sales pace. For a balanced market, where there are enough homes available for interested buyers to purchase, that number would need to bump up to a 6-month supply. This means we don’t have enough inventory for the number of buyers looking for homes, so selling in this scenario is ideal. Buyers are looking now, and some vacation homes make a great primary residence or second home for those eager to escape from more populated urban areas.
2. Home Prices
The lack of inventory is also keeping homes from depreciating in value. Today, prices are holding strong and experts forecast home price appreciation to continue throughout this year. Selling your home while prices are holding steady is a sound business move. You’ll likely have equity you’ve earned working for you as well. If your home has been vacant for the past few months, the forced savings you have built in your equity may help balance out possible rental income loss due to the slowdown in the travel industry.
We don’t know exactly when heightened summer travel will return or what it will look like when it does. If you’re considering selling your vacation home, let’s connect today to determine your options in the current market.
June 4, 2020
As the economy is slowly rebounding, all signs continue to point to a solid recovery in home sales activity heading into the summer as prospective buyers jump back into the market. Low mortgage rates are a key factor in this recovery. While homebuyer demand is up and has been broad-based across most geographies, supply has been slower to improve. In fact, the gap between supply and demand has widened even further than the large gap that existed prior to the pandemic.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!