Happy Monday, March 18, 2019
In February 2019, 17.3% more homes were for sale in Hillsborough County than in February 2018 and 1.6% more than in January of 2019. The number of homes sold climbed 9.8% year over year and 29.7% month over month. The number of homes under contract rose 21.2% compared to January 2019 and 21.1% compared to February 2018. The Months of Inventory came in at 3.2 months, up 6.7% from the previous February.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage fell 2.1% compared to January 2019, but ticked up 0.7% compared to last February. The Median Sold Price increased 1.3% from last month, while the Average Sold Price decreased by 0.7%.
The Average Days on Market trended upward, rising 15.8% compared to February 2018. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price was 95%, a decline of 1% compared to the previous year.
Home Sales (Sold)
In February 2019, 1401 single-family homes sold in Hillsborough County. That was an increase of 9.8% from the 1276 sold in February of 2018. It was 29.7% higher than the 1080 sales in January 2018.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
In February 2019, 664 homes were listed for sale, 17.3% more than in February of last year. Housing inventory was down 1.6% compared last month.
Property Under Contract (Pended)
In February 2019, 1988 homes were under contract. That was 21.2% more than the 1640 last month and 21.1% higher than at this time last year.
The Average Sold Price per Square Foot shows which way home prices are headed. Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can sometimes be skewed by outliers that sell for a really high or low price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator of home values. The February 2019 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $141 dropped 2.1% from $144 last month, but rose 0.7% from $140 in February 2018.
The Days on Market Shows Upward Trend
The Average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average home is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM indicates a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for February 2019 was 66 days, up 11.9% from 59 days last month and 15.8% from 57 days in February 2018.
The Sold/Original List Price Ratio Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to decrease their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100%, the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. In February, the Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 95% was 1.1% more than in January 2019, but 1% less than in February 2018.
The Average For Sale Price is Neutral
The Average For Sale Price in February was $450,000, up 1.6% from $443,000 in February of 2018 and 5.4% from $427,000 last month.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in February was $289,000, up 1% from $286,000 in February of 2018 and 0.7% from $291,000 last month.
The Median Sold Price is Neutral
The Median Sold Price in February was $241,000, up 0.8% from $239,000 in February of 2018 and 1.3% from $238,000 last month.
February was a Neutral Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The February 2019 Months of Inventory of 3.2 months was 6.7% higher compared to last February but 23.6% lower than January 2018. Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The February 2019 Absorption Rate fell 6.6% to 31.1 compared to February 2018 but jumped 31.8% compared to January 2019.
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY, Fla. — Spring Break is almost here for Hillsborough County kids. Students will be off school March 18 to 22.
If you are looking for something fun for your kids to do during the break, county officials have the following five suggestions for you.
Spring Break Camp
Children in grades K-8 can spend time with their friends in a supervised environment. Park and Recreation staff create an atmosphere where kids can play and explore. The cost for the camp is $38 for the week. There is no cost for kids enrolled in the After School or Camp Sparks programs. For more information, click here or call (813) 744-5595.
The Hillsborough County Public Library Cooperative offers kids a free way to explore ten local museums and attractions including Big Cat Rescue, the Henry B. Plant Museum, the Glazer Children’s Museum and the Tampa Museum of Art. You can get a Discovery Pass by clicking here.
Great American Campout
The annual Great American Campout allows families to explore and learn about the outdoors in safe environment. It is being held at Alderman’s Ford Park on March 16 and 17. Kids can fish, hike, play volleyball, paddle on the lake, use a pie iron to make dessert and learn how to start a campfire. Registration is required. For more information, click here or call (813) 957-6150.
Line up a summer job
Hillsborough County is hiring teenagers for part-time and seasonal jobs. Available positions include lifeguard, recreation leader, and youth intern in various departments. Pay starts at $10.50 per hour. To learn more or to apply, click here.
Hillsborough County is always looking for teenagers who want to make a difference in their neighborhood. Teens can assist pets at the county shelter, deliver meals to seniors, clean up the environment, or help veterans, the homeless or other children. To apply to volunteer, click here.
Congratulations! You’ve found a home to buy and have applied for a mortgage! You are undoubtedly excited about the opportunity to decorate your new home! But before you make any big purchases, move any money around, or make any big-time life changes, consult your loan officer. They will be able to tell you how your decision will impact your home loan.
Below is a list of 7 Things You Shouldn’t Do After Applying for a Mortgage! Some may seem obvious, but some may not!
1. Don’t change jobs or the way you are paid at your job! Your loan officer must be able to track the source and amount of your annual income. If possible, you’ll want to avoid changing from salary to commission or becoming self-employed during this time as well.
2. Don’t deposit cash into your bank accounts. Lenders need to source your money and cash is not really traceable. Before you deposit any amount of cash into your accounts, discuss the proper way to document your transactions with your loan officer.
3. Don’t make any large purchases like a new car or new furniture for your new home. New debt comes with it, including new monthly obligations. New obligations create new qualifications. People with new debt have higher debt to income ratios… higher ratios make for riskier loans… and sometimes qualified borrowers no longer qualify.
4. Don’t co-sign other loans for anyone. When you co-sign, you are obligated. As we mentioned, with that obligation comes higher ratios as well. Even if you swear you will not be the one making the payments, your lender will have to count the payment against you.
5. Don’t change bank accounts. Remember, lenders need to source and track assets. That task is significantly easier when there is consistency among your accounts. Before you even transfer money between accounts, talk to your loan officer.
6. Don’t apply for new credit. It doesn’t matter whether it’s a new credit card or a new car. When you have your credit report run by organizations in multiple financial channels (mortgage, credit card, auto, etc.), your FICO score will be affected. Lower credit scores can determine your interest rate and maybe even your eligibility for approval.
7. Don’t close any credit accounts. Many clients have erroneously believed that having less available credit makes them less risky and more likely to be approved. Wrong. A major component of your score is your length and depth of credit history (as opposed to just your payment history) and your total usage of credit as a percentage of available credit. Closing accounts has a negative impact on both those determinants of your score.
Any blip in income, assets, or credit should be reviewed and executed in a way that ensures your home loan can still be approved. The best advice is to fully disclose and discuss your plans with your loan officer before you do anything financial in nature. They are there to guide you through the process.
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Few people are predicting that 2019 will be a record-breaking year for home prices.
But relatively speaking, 2019 might be the best time for you to put your house on the market. Especially if you’re on the fence about selling this year or next, Nick Ron, CEO of House Buyers of America, recommends going with the devil you know rather than the devil you don’t.
“I think it’ll be better than 2020 and 2021 – who knows what’s going to happen in those years,” Ron says
Home price growth slowed in the second half of 2018, with fewer buyers entering the market, at least partially due to rising interest rates issued by the Federal Reserve. In 2019, consumers shouldn’t expect homebuyers to flood the market again and drive prices through the roof, but it’s also unlikely to be a crisis for home sellers.
If you bought your house in the last year or two, still love it and don’t want to part with it, go ahead and wait another five years before revisiting the thought of selling. But if you’re weighing your options to sell, considering selling this year or maybe the year after, don’t play the waiting game.
Here are four reasons to sell your house in 2019:
- New buyers are still entering the market.
- Interest rates are still on the lower end.
- You have high equity.
- Selling now will be better than waiting till 2020.
New Buyers Are Still Entering the Market
As interest rates rise, some buyers will hesitate to make an offer on a home or apply for a mortgage, so be ready to see occasional drops in buyer activity. And if your house is at the higher end of the price range in your market, you should expect less buyer interest than before. Ron notes the combination of rising mortgage rates and home prices exceeding buyers’ budgets are what has caused the slowing of homebuyer activity in recent months.
But with available housing inventory remaining low, even with rising interest rates, buyers who are ready to make a purchase will still shop for homes. The biggest wave of new homebuyers will be among millennials, who are mostly first-time buyers. In a Harris Poll survey of 2,000 U.S. adults commissioned by real estate information company Trulia, more than one-fifth of Americans between ages 18 and 34 said they plan to buy a home within the next 12 months. Already, millennials make up the largest share of homebuyers at 36 percent, according to the National Association of Realtors, which released the number in March 2018.
The bottom line: While houses may sit on the market for a few more days on average compared with 2017 when the market was white-hot, buyers remain active and it’s still possible to profit from your home sale.
Interest Rates Are Still Low-ish
Mortgage interest rates have been on a bit of a bumpy road over the last few months. Interest rates for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage reached their highest level in over seven years in November 2018, when they hit 4.94 percent, according to Freddie Mac. As of the end of February 2019, however, interest rates are down slightly to 4.35 percent, according to the mortgage loan company. While it’s reasonable to expect mortgage rates to continue to climb gradually throughout the next year, they’ll remain much lower than the historic high of more than 18 percent in 1981.
It’s important to keep in mind that while mortgage rates tend to mirror the Fed’s interest rate activity, mortgage rates are based on the market in that moment, your financial status and the property you’re looking to purchase.
Just because the Fed raises rates at one meeting doesn’t mean mortgage rates will follow that exact pattern. “Not every Fed increase is passing on (to) a mortgage rate,” says John Pataky, executive vice president and chief consumer and commercial banking executive at TIAA Bank.
A sudden leap in mortgage interest rates is unlikely in 2019, though Pataky notes that you should be ready to see rates continue to climb. “We do expect over the next 12 months that mortgage rates will continue to drift higher,” he says.
If you’re looking to get the lowest interest rate possible on your next house, try to make a deal sooner rather than later.
You Have High Equity
Homeowners who bought during the recession or shortly after benefitted from historically low interest rates and, up until around 2015, lower home prices that were still in recovery mode. If you fall into that category, your home equity has risen with nearly every mortgage payment, each renovation you made to the house and all the other houses on the block that sold for a higher price.
The higher your equity in your home, the more you net from the sale, which can easily go toward the down payment on your next house. The larger your down payment, the better you look to lenders and the lower your interest rate will be, and the less likely you’ll need to increase monthly payments with private mortgage insurance.
Selling in 2019 vs. 2020
If not selling your home in 2019 means putting your house on the market in 2020, the sooner option is the best one. In a survey of 100 U.S. real estate experts and economists by real estate information company Zillow, released in May, almost half expect the next recession to occur in 2020. Another 14 percent believe the recession will hold out until 2021, while 24 percent of panelists expect the recession earlier – sometime in 2019.
Whether you believe the recession is imminent or a long way off, current real estate patterns indicate a sudden upswing in activity or prices is unlikely in the near future. Real estate markets tend to operate on a cycle of their own, the length of which varies by market but can be between 10 and 16 years total and flow from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market with a period of balance in between.
“It doesn’t look like there’s anything on the horizon that’s going to cause a big spike in home prices or increase demand dramatically,” Ron says.
March 14, 2019
Mortgage rates declined decisively this week amid various market reports, a strong bond auction and further uncertainty around the Brexit deal, which all contributed to driving bond yields lower. At 4.31 percent, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at its lowest since February of last year. While these low rates will certainly get the attention of prospective homebuyers, the supply of homes for sale remains stubbornly low.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic Day!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!