Happy Monday, December 16, 2019
The single-family housing market in Hillsborough County favored sellers in November 2019.
Homes for Sale fell 14.1% from November 2018 and 8% from October 2019. Homes Sold increased 0.4% year over year and decreased 1.7% month over month. Homes Under Contract dropped 3.4% compared to October of this year but jumped 21.6% compared to November of last year.
The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales was 2.3 months, down 14.8% from November 2018.
The Average Sold Price per Square Footage stayed the same as October 2019 and rose 3.4% compared to November 2018. The Median Sold Price climbed 2% from October of this year. The Average Sold Price increased 3.2% from this October.
The Average Days on Market rose 3.6% compared to November of last year. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% ticked up 1.1% compared to November a year ago.
Home Sales (Sold)
In November 2019, 1682 Single-Family Homes sold in Hillsborough County. That was a 0.4% rise from 1676 in November 2018 and a 1.7% decline from the 1711 sold in October 2019.
Current Inventory of Homes (For Sale)
Single-Family Homes for Sale fell 639 units or 14.1% in November 2019 compared to November 2018. Current Single-Family Housing Inventory dropped 8% compared to this October.
Homes Under Contract (Pending)
In November 2019, Single-Family Homes Under Contract decreased 3.4% compared to November 2018. (1734 versus 1795). Pending Homes for Sale jumped 21.6% compared to October of this year .
The Average Sold Price per Square Foot shows the direction of home prices. Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can sometimes be skewed by outliers that sell for a really high or low price. So the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator of home values. The November 2019 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $150 stayed flat compared to this October. It rose 3.4% from $145 in November of last year.
The Days The Average Days on Market Shows Upward Trend
The average Days on Market (DOM) shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for November 2019 of 57 days increased 9.6% from 52 days in October 2019 and 3.6% from 55 days in November 2018.
The Sold/Original List Price Remains Steady
The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. November 2019’s Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 96% was the same as last month. It ticked up 1.1% compared to November of last year.
The Average For Sale Price is Depreciating
The Average For Sale Price in November was $474,000, up 11% from $427,000 in November of 2018 and down 1% from $479,000 last month.
The Average Sold Price is Neutral
The Average Sold Price in November was $318,000, up 5% from $303,000 in November of 2018 and up 3.2% from $308,000 last month.
November 2019 was a Seller’s Market*
A comparatively lower Months of Inventory benefits sellers while a higher Months of Inventory favors buyers.
*Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory
Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales
The November 2019 Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 2.3 months fell 14.8% compared to the previous November and 8.1% compared to this October.
Absorption Rate measures what percentage of the current active listings are being absorbed each month.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales
The November 2019 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 43.1 jumped 16.8% compared to November 2018 and 7% compared October 2019.
TAMPA — From as far away as Wisconsin and as close as down the hall, dozens of educators have thrown in their names to replace Jeff Eakins as superintendent of the nation’s seventh-largest school district.
The list of applicants to lead Hillsborough County Public Schools, released Friday, includes deputy superintendent Chris Farkas and Chief of Schools Harrison Peters. Alberto Vazquez Matos, a onetime Catholic schools educator who served as Eakins’ first deputy superintendent, wants to relocate from Hartford, Conn., where he is now a deputy superintendent.
These and 48 others want to succeed Eakins, the Ohio-born superintendent who is retiring on June 30. Like his three predecessors, Eakins was hired from within the large school district.
This time, wanting a national search, the School Board has hired Ray and Associates of Iowa to recruit and vet a larger pool of candidates. Ray plans to cut the list to 10 to 12 candidates and present them, along with their background materials, to the board during a series of meetings in January.
Under that scenario, the next superintendent could be selected on Jan. 21.
But the board is not bound by Ray’s work. If necessary, board members can end the search and name an interim leader until they can agree on a selection.
The 51 applicants include about a half-dozen current and former district employees, including Clair Mel Elementary principal Gloria Waite and Strawberry Crest High School teacher Ryan Haczynski.
It also includes Florida educators such as Wayne Alexander, who ran afoul of the Hernando County School Board a decade ago; Addison Davis, a Clay County superintendent who applied even though he is running for re-election there; and Peter Licata, a regional superintendent in Palm Beach County who rose to be a finalist in this year’s Volusia County superintendent search.
School Board chairwoman Melissa Snively urged the community this week to honor the selection process and have faith that it will work. “There is no predetermined outcome and no predetermined person,” she said, calling also for a “cone of silence” among her fellow board members. “We need to be very careful to remain impartial as this process plays itself out,” she said.
Here are some questions and answers about the superintendent search.
Why is the Hillsborough school superintendent important?
The Hillsborough County public school system is by far the largest employer in the Tampa Bay area with a workforce of nearly 25,000. The district is the nation’s seventh-largest, serving more than 220,000 students. A seven-member elected board hires the superintendent, approves the yearly budget and sets overall policy. But the superintendent is in charge of all other hiring, firing and day-to-day operations. That includes the appointment of cabinet members who handle transportation, instruction, personnel and ongoing initiatives including the Achievement Schools, literacy and early childhood education projects.
Why is Jeff Eakins leaving?
In his letter to the School Board, Eakins said he wants to be more available to his family, including his aging parents in Ohio. Eakins has worked for the school district since 1989 and will have been superintendent for five years when he steps down on or before June 30. His three predecessors served roughly a decade each. But, more and more, district superintendents serve about three to five years.
Will the board hire an inside candidate? Or someone from outside?
There are arguments to be made on either side, and the board members generally agree that it is important to do a broad search. An inside candidate will be familiar with Florida law and local issues. But an outsider might be more willing to shake things up, even if that means dismissing some long-serving administrators.
What are the school district’s most pressing issues?
Like most large public school districts, Hillsborough faces challenges related to economic disparities among its students. Reading levels are chronically low, especially in high-poverty schools. At some schools, more than half the students test at the state’s lowest level. Charter schools, which are funded by taxpayers but operate independently, are competing aggressively for students, especially in the growing Hillsborough suburbs. Their growth bleeds the district of tax funding and causes schools to lose families who are most supportive and involved. Hillsborough also is under pressure to recruit and retain good teachers at a time when many are discouraged with the profession. Finally, rapid population growth in the southern part of the county has Hillsborough scrambling to build schools to accommodate new students.
When and how will the School Board and its search consultant narrow the list of candidates?
Ray and Associates is vetting the original group now, verifying information and evaluating the candidates using input it received during a series of surveys, focus groups and community meetings in the fall.
On Jan. 7, the board will be given the shorter list of 10 to 12 candidates, along with back-up materials. They will meet on that day and narrow the list to about five. On Jan. 16 they will interview the five candidates and narrow the list to two. On Jan, 21, they will conduct their final interviews and, if all goes as hoped, select a superintendent.
How much does the job pay?
Eakins earned $225,000. His successor will likely negotiate a salary that is closer to $300,000.
What if a School Board member likes somebody on the original list, but that person does not make the consultant’s first cut?
At one of the January meetings, the board member could make a motion to add someone to the list. If a majority on the board agrees, that person can be added. But that person must be on the original list, meaning he or she applied by the deadline of Dec. 11.
Can we assume that the next superintendent is on the list that was released Friday?
Not necessarily, because of this big caveat: Searches do not always go as envisioned, largely because of Florida’s public records laws. Potential candidates — the best ones, some will argue — do not want to poison relationships with their current employers. So, often, the most desirable candidates will hold back.
Can the board or an individual board member woo a candidate they really want?
Yes. They would have to be careful not to discuss these efforts with one another, as that would violate the state’s Sunshine Law. But, hypothetically, a board member could get on a plane and meet in secret with a person not on the original list. That person could not be added to the pool if he or she did not apply by Dec. 11. But, at any of the planned board meetings in January, the board member could make a motion to reject all the original applicants and begin another search. “There would have to be another process to accomplish that,” said Jim Porter, the School Board’s attorney. That outcome could happen with a majority vote.
That sounds messy. Aren’t they on a deadline to wrap this whole thing up by June 30?
Board members have made it clear that they do not want to rush into a relationship that is not in the best interest of 220,000 students. If they hit a roadblock, they can always name an interim superintendent while they conduct a new search.
From Our Blog
The reality of what we’re seeing this month is that homes are selling fast. In today’s strong seller’s market, bidding wars are common and expected with starter or entry-level homes.
In most areas of the country, first-time buyers have been met with fierce competition throughout their homebuying experience. Some have been out-bid multiple times before finally going into contract on a home to call their own.
Right now, inventory is the big challenge. Here’s what we know today:
According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there is currently a 3.9-month supply of homes for sale, which can drive this kind of hefty buyer competition. Remember, anything less than 6 months of inventory is a seller’s market.
Even though the month’s supply of inventory is not increasing, ironically, the number of homes for sale is. This means homes are coming up for sale, but they’re being sold quickly. The graph below shows the year-over-year change in inventory over the last 12 months.As depicted above, the percentage of available inventory has fallen for four consecutive months when compared to the previous year.
So, what does this mean? If you’re a buyer, be sure to get pre-approved for a mortgage and be ready to make a competitive offer, so you can move quickly. Chances are, homes high on your wish list are likely going to go fast.
If you’re thinking of buying a home, make sure you’re taking the right steps at the beginning of the process, so you’re a top contender if you ultimately find yourself in a bidding war. Let’s get together to discuss what you need to do to make your move toward homeownership.
Click the graphic above to visit www.teambohannon.com
Black Friday is behind us and holiday gifts are flying off the shelves in stores and online. Unlike last year, however, there’s another type of buyer that is very active this winter – the homebuyer.
Each month, ShowingTime releases their Showing Index, which tracks the average number of appointments received on active U.S. house listings. The latest index revealed:
“Traffic was more active once again compared to 2018, as the nation saw its third straight month of higher year-over-year showing activity…The 5.5% increase in showings nationwide was the largest jump in activity during the now three-month streak of year-over-year increases vs. 2018.”
The same report indicates showings increased in every region of the country:
- The South increased by 10.8%
- The West increased by 8.6%
- The Northeast increased by 3.8%
- The Midwest increased by 1.5%
Why is the traffic more active?
One of the main reasons buyer traffic has increased year-over-year is that mortgage rates have fallen dramatically. According to Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate last December was 4.64%. Today, the rate is almost a full percentage point lower!
There are first-time, move-up, and move-down buyers actively looking for the home of their dreams this winter. If you’re thinking of selling your house in 2020, you don’t need to wait until the spring to do it. Your potential buyer may be searching for a home in your neighborhood right now.
December 12, 2019
With Federal Reserve policy on cruise control and the economy continuing to grow at a steady pace, mortgage rates have stabilized as the market searches for direction. The risk of an economic downturn has receded and, combined with the very strong job market, it should lead to a slightly higher rate environment. Since early September, when mortgage rates posted the year low of 3.49 percent, rates have moved up to 3.73 percent this week. Often, while higher mortgage rates are deleterious, improved economic sentiment is the reason that these higher rates have not impacted mortgage demand so far.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. We’d love to help you buy or sell your home, so please get in touch! You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form.
Have a Fantastic Day!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!