Happy Monday, July 29, 2019
In today’s Market Monday, I’ll review the housing market for all of Greater Tampa. The area includes the communities in the map below.
As you’ll see in the table that follows, Total Sold Dollar Volume, Average Sold Price, Median Days on the Market, Average Days on the Market and Average Price Per Square Foot rose, while the number of Closed Sales and the Median Price fell compared to June 2018. A month-over-month comparison showed that Total Sold Dollar Volume, Closed Sales, and Average Days on the Market dropped, while Median Sold Price, Average Sold Price and Average Price Per Square Foot climbed. Median Days on the Market held steady compared to May 2019.
The data above covers all types of Greater Tampa housing, but let’s take a deeper look at single-family homes. Closed Sales increased 0.5% compared to June 2018, as 2,911 SFHs sold. That was 208 fewer than in May 2019. (Just place your cursor on the trend line in the graph below to see the stats.)
The Number of Active Listings declined 1.9% from June 2018, as 6,259 homes were for sale (15 more than in May 2019). New Listings fell 5.7% from June a year ago, as 3,259 homes came onto the market, 206 less than in May 2019.
The June 2019 Median Sale Price stayed flat at $255,000 compared to June 2018. It was $2,500 higher than in May 2019. The Average Price per Sq Foot for Sold Homes rose 3.5% from June 2018 to $148/sq ft. The Median List Price held steady at $259,900 compared to June 2018. In May 2019, it stood at $254,990. The Average List Price per Sq Foot increased 1.8% to $168/sq ft compared to June 2018.
Supply and Demand
The supply of single-family homes dropped 2% from June 2018 to 2.52 months. In April 2019, the supply also stood at 2.52 months. The Absorption Rate*, which shows the rate that homes sell during a given time period, climbed 2.5% from June 2018 to 0.47. This means the Greater Tampa single-family housing market continues to favor sellers.
*Absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of sales in a given month by the number of available homes for sale. For example, if there are 100 homes listed for sale in a certain area, and 20 sold during the last month, the absorption rate is 20/100 = .20 or 20%.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
Tampa Bay Comic Convention: Get out your costume, Tampa Convention Center will be a pop culture palace Friday through Sunday with loads collectibles and celebrity guests including Michael Rooker (Guardians of the Galaxy), Ronald Perlman (Hellboy), and Creed Bratton from The Office. $30-$40.
Luke Bryan: The country music superstar hits the MidFlorida Credit Union Amphitheatre on Friday with Cole Swindell and Jon Langston ($40-$135).
Music: Prince Daddy brings their brand of poppy emo rock to the Ybor’s Crowbar today ($13-15). the Christian act 2+One Band has a free show today at 7 p.m. at St. Justin Martyr Catholic Church in Seminole. The metalcore act August Burns Red will be at the Ritz Ybor on Tuesday ($25.50). The classical-pop ensemble the Florida Bjorkestrapays tribute to Joni Mitchell and Nick Drake on Saturday at the Palladium in St. Petersburg ($20-$40). Alt-rock legends 311 join forces with the California-based reggae rock stars Dirty Heads Saturday at the MidFlorida Amphitheatre ($18-$110). LA-based DJ AC Slater performs along with local acts Pedro M and Kyle Kinch on Saturday at the Ritz Ybor ($15).
The Gap and the Glue: Written, produced and performed by American Stage apprentices, the play opens Wednesday and runs through Aug. 16. Performances are free, and the play imagines a future in which theater has suddenly been banned. americanstage.org
Wendy Williams: The television host, fashion designer sits down and spills the beans on her life her story Friday at the Mahaffey Theater in St. Petersburg ($49.75-$125)
Bill Maher: The politically incorrect comedian has a sold-out show Sunday at Ruth Eckerd Hall in Clearwater.
kids and family
Cinema STEM: Tampa Theatre’s series on science and technology pairs a classic movie with a real scientist. Tuesday brings the ‘80s classicWarGames, starring Matthew Broderick, followed by a talk by Nathan W. Fisk, cybersecurity professor at the University of South Florida. $10. 711 N Franklin St., Tampa.
The Hundred Dresses: The Stageworks Theater production is geared toward grade-school kids and has a multi-generational cast. Set in 1938 during the Great Depression. A pack of mean girls torments a girl who claims to have 100 beautiful dresses, although she only ever wears one. Straying from the original book, this production is told through the eyes of one of the mean girls who becomes faced with an uncomfortable choice. It opens Thursday and runs through Aug. 11. $15-$20. 1120 E. Kennedy Blvd., Tampa. innovocativetheatre.org.
From Our Blog:
The current housing landscape presents greater home values, low interest rates, and high buyer demand. All of these factors point to the strong market forecasted to continue throughout the rest of the year.
There is, however, one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: an overall lack of housing inventory. Buyer demand naturally increases during the summer months, but the current supply is not keeping up.
Here is a look at what a few industry experts have to say:
“Imbalance persists for mid-to-lower priced homes with solid demand and insufficient supply, which is consequently pushing up home prices.”
“Market conditions are ripe for increasing home sales with one glaring exception. The supply of homes for sale remains tight, keeping existing home sales below potential.”
“We’re not seeing as many new listings come up on the market…It was only 18 months ago that the number of homes for sale hit its lowest level in recorded history and sparked the fiercest competition among buyers we’ve ever seen.”
If you’re thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong during a period when there is very little competition, ideally leading to a quick sale and a great return on your investment.
Shifting trends and industry-leading research are pointing toward some valuable projections about the status of the housing market for the rest of the year.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling, or if you just want to know what experts are saying is on the horizon, here are the top three things to put on your radar as we head into the coming months:
- Home prices are appreciating at a more normal rate: Home prices have been appreciating for about ten years now. Experts at the Home Price Expectation Survey, Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae are forecasting continued growth throughout the next year, although it should be leveling-off to normal appreciation (3.6%), as we move into 2020.
- Interest rates are low: Over the past 30 years, the average mortgage rate in the United States has been 8.27%, and rates even peaked as high as 18% in the 1980s. Today, at 81%, the rate is considerably lower than the historical 30-year average. Although experts predict it may climb into the low 4% range in the near future, that’s still remarkably lower than our running average, suggesting a great time to get more for your money over the life of your loan.
- An impending recession does not mean there will be a housing crash: Although expert research studies such as those found in the Duke Survey of American CFOs and the National Association of Business Economics, are pointing toward a recession beginning within the next 18 months, a potential recession isn’t expected to be driven by the housing industry. That means we likely won’t experience a devastating housing crash like the country felt in 2008. Expert financial analyst Morgan Housel tweeted:
“An interesting thing is the widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”
With prices appreciating and low interest rates available, it’s a perfect time to buy or sell a home. Let’s get together to discuss how you can take the next step in the exciting journey of homeownership.
July 25, 2019
Mortgage rates continued to hover near three-year lows and purchase application demand has responded, rising steadily over the last two months to the highest year-over-year change since the fall of 2017. While the improvement has yet to impact home sales, there’s a clear firming of purchase demand that should translate into higher home sales in the second half of this year.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. If you want help buying or selling your home, please get in touch. We have sold over 5,000 homes in the Tampa area and our mission is “to elevate the practice of real estate to an art form — and to deliver a real estate experience that is re-imagined and extraordinary!
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Thanks for taking time to read the Tampa Market Monthly! If you want to buy or sell a home or find out your home’s value please let us know. We’d love to work with you. You can reach me, Doug Bohannon or Dale Bohannon at 813-979-4963 or by completing this contact form. You can search all Tampa area homes for sale at www.teambohannon.com.
Have a Fantastic week!