Happy Monday, January 27, 2020
Today let’s review what’s going on in the Greater Tampa housing market (includes the communities in the map below).
As you’ll see in the table that follows, all housing market metrics rose except for Median Days on the Market compared to December 2018. Median Days stayed flat. All month-over-month housing statistics climbed too.
The data above includes all types of Greater Tampa housing, but let’s look more closely into the data for single-family homes. Closed Sales increased 21.1% compared to December 2018, as 2,509 SFHs sold. That was 29 more homes than in November 2019. (Just place your cursor on the trend line in the graph below to see the stats.)
The Number of Active Listings declined 14.7% from December 2018, as 5,579 homes were for sale (409 less than in November 2019). New Listings dropped 5.7% from December 2018 a, as 2,067 homes came onto the market, 390 less than in November 2019.
The December 2019 Median Sale Price jumped 7.5% to $258,000 compared to December 2018. It was $ 748 lower than in November 2019. The Average Price per Sq Foot for Sold Homes rose 7.1% from December 2018 to $151/sq ft. The Median List Price increased 6% to $260,000 compared to December 2018. The Average List Price per Sq Foot climbed 5.6% to $171/sq ft compared to December 2018.
Supply and Demand
The supply of single-family homes fell 19.1% from December 2018 to 2.17 months. In November 2019, the supply was 2.36 months. The Absorption Rate*, which shows the rate that homes sell during a given time period, rose 42% from December 2018 to 0.45. So the Greater Tampa single-family housing market continues to favor sellers.
*Absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of sales in a given month by the number of available homes for sale. For example, if there are 100 homes listed for sale in a certain area, and 20 sold during the last month, the absorption rate is 20/100 = .20 or 20%.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
The headlines in real estate today all revolve around one major point: there is a shortage of homes available for sale. Price appreciation is accelerating again because there is a shortage of homes available for sale. First-time buyers are taking longer to purchase a home because there is a shortage of homes available for sale in the lower price points. Boomers are staying in their current homes longer because there is a shortage of homes available for sale to which they would move. In certain markets, affordability is becoming more challenging because there is a shortage of homes available for sale.
What’s the major reason for this lack of housing inventory?
The issue was examined in a recent article by the National Home Builders Association (NAHB). In the article, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for NAHB, explained:
“Home building in the 2010s was a story of the Long Recovery. After the Great Recession, the number of home builders declined significantly, and housing production was unable to meet buyer demand…Years of population and household formation growth, combined with relatively reduced levels of home building, have left the market with a critical supply shortage.”
Here are the single-family home construction starts by decade for the last six decades:Obviously, there’s a current shortage of homes for sale because not enough houses were built over the last ten years. To add to the challenge, the U.S. population expanded by more than 20 million people during the 2010s.
There’s good news coming!
The NAHB article explains that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
How confident home builders are in the housing market is a great indicator of how much building is about to get started. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average,” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as “good” than “poor.”
Here are the HMI readings going back to 2008:The 2019 confidence reading of 76 was the highest since 1999. The January 2020 index came in one point lower at 75. These readings indicate we should see an increase in new residential construction in 2020. Just last week, NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde stated:
“Low interest rates and a healthy labor market combined with a need for additional inventory are setting the stage for further home building gains in 2020.”
The increase in housing starts has already begun. According to the January report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, single‐family housing starts were up 11.2% and attained the highest level in thirteen years.
Whether you’re a first-time buyer or a seller thinking of moving up or down, 2020 could be your year with more new construction homes coming to market.
In a market where current inventory is low, it’s normal to think buyers might be willing to give up a few desirable features in their home search in order to make finding a house a little easier. Don’t be fooled, though – there’s still an interest in the market for some key upgrades. Here’s a look at the two surprising things buyers seem to be searching for in today’s market, and how they’re impacting new home builds.
Homebuyers Are Not Giving Up Their Garages
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released an article showing the percentage of new single-family homes completed in 2018. The data reveals,
- 64% of new homes offer a 2-car garage
- 21% have a garage large enough to hold 3 or more cars
- 7% have a 1-car garage
- 7% do not include a garage or carport
- 1% have a carport
Homebuyers Are Not Giving Up Their Patios
Patios are on the radar for buyers as well. Community areas are often common amenities in new neighborhoods, but as it turns out, private outdoor spaces are quite desirable too. NAHB also found that,
“Of the roughly 876,000 single-family homes started in 2018, 59.4% came with patios…This is the highest the number has been since NAHB began tracking the series in 2005.”
Homebuyers are looking for garage space and outdoor patio living. If you’re a homeowner thinking of selling a house with these amenities, it appears buyers are willing to spring for those key features. Let’s get together today to determine the current value and demand for your home.
January 23, 2020
Rates fell to the lowest level in three months and are about a quarter point above all-time lows. The very low rate environment has clearly had an impact on the housing market as both new construction and home sales have surged in response to the decline in rates, the rebound in the economy and improving financial market sentiment.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. If you want help buying or selling your home, please get in touch. We have sold over 5,000 homes in the Tampa area and our mission is “to elevate the practice of real estate to an art form — and to deliver a real estate experience that is re-imagined and extraordinary!
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