Happy Monday August 24, 2020
Today, we’ll take a look at how the Greater Tampa housing market (includes the communities in the map below) performed in July 2020.
As you’ll see in the table that follows, Total Sold Dollar Volume, Closed Sales, Median Sold Price, Average Sold Price and Average Sold Price per Square Foot rose, while Median Days on the Market fell compared to July 2019. Average Days on the Market stayed flat. Compared to June 2020, Total Sold Dollar Volume, Closed Sales and Median Sold price increased, but Average Sold Price, Median Days on the Market, Average Days on the Market and Average Price per Square Foot decreased.
Pending (Homes Under Contract) and Closed Sales Over Last 5 Years
The data above includes all types of Greater Tampa housing, but let’s look more closely into the data for single-family homes. In July 2020, Closed Sales climbed 11.4% compared to July 2019, as 3,270 SFHs sold. That was 175 more homes sold than in June 2020.
The Number of Active Listings declined to 3,899, a 37.1% drop from July of last year. That was 212 fewer homes than were listed for sale in June 2020. New Listings fell 0.9% from July 2019, as 3,213 homes came onto the market, 275 more than in June 2020.
The July 2020 Median Sale Price rose 9.4% to $280,000 compared to July 2019. It was $10,200 higher than in June 2020. The Average Price per Sq Foot for Sold Homes rose 6.8% from June 2019 to $157/sq ft. The Median List Price increased 9.6% to $285,000 compared to July 2019. It was $11,500 higher than in June 2020. The Average List Price per Sq Foot climbed 12.4% to $190/sq ft compared to July of last year.
Supply and Demand
The supply of single-family homes dropped 38% from July 2019 to 1.54 months. The Absorption Rate*, which shows the rate that homes sell during a given time period, leaped 77.2% from July 2019 to 0.84.
Currently, the Greater Tampa single-family housing market favors sellers.
*Absorption rate is calculated by dividing the number of sales in a given month by the number of available homes for sale. For example, if there are 100 homes listed for sale in a certain area, and 20 sold during the last month, the absorption rate is 20/100 = .20 or 20%.
*Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%
The residential real estate market has definitely been the shining light in this country’s current economic situation. All-time low mortgage rates coupled with a new appreciation of what a home truly means has caused the housing market to push forward through this major health crisis. Let’s look at two measures that explain the resilience of the real estate market.
The number of buyers getting a mortgage to purchase a home is a strong indicator of the strength of a housing market. Below is a graph of the week-over-week percent change in that number, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association:The number dropped dramatically in March and mid-April when the economy was shut down in response to COVID. It increased substantially from later in April through the middle of June. The strong increase in May and June was the result of the pent-up demand from earlier in the spring along with the normal business that would have been done during that time.
Since July, the market has remained consistent on a weekly basis, but still reflects a double-digit increase from the levels one year ago. The August 12 report shows a whopping 22% increase over last year.
Like purchase mortgages, pending contracts are also a powerful indicator of the strength of the real estate market. Zillow reports each week on the percent change in the number of homes going into contract. Here’s a graph of their data:The graph mirrors the one above, showing a drop in early spring followed by a strong recovery in late spring and early summer. Then, in July, it settles into a consistent level of deals. That level, like the one for purchase mortgages, is well ahead of the level seen last year. The last report revealed that pending deals were 16.9% greater than the same time last year.
Both indicators prove the housing market recovered quickly from the early setback caused by the shelter-in-home orders. They also show that Americans have realized the importance of their homes during this time and are buying more houses than they did prior to the pandemic.
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In today’s housing market, it can be a big challenge for buyers to find homes to purchase, as the number of houses for sale is far below the current demand. Now, however, we’re seeing sellers slowly starting to come back into the market, a bright spark for potential buyers. Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research at realtor.com, explains:
“Seller confidence has been improving gradually after reaching its bottom in mid-April, and now it appears to have reached an important recovery milestone…After five long months, sellers are back in the housing market; while encouraging, the improvement to new listings is only the first step in the long road to solving low inventory issues keeping many buyers at bay.”
Even with the number of homes coming into the market, the available inventory is well below where it needs to be to satisfy buyer interest. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:
“Total housing inventory at the end of June totaled 1.57 million units, up 1.3% from May, but still down 18.2% from one year ago (1.92 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from both 4.8 months in May and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in June 2019.”
Houses today are selling faster than they’re coming to market. That’s why we only have inventory for 4 months at the current sales pace when in reality we need inventory for 6 months to keep up. But, as mentioned above, sellers are starting to return to the game. Realtor.com explains:
“The ‘housing supply’ component – which tracks growth of new listings – reached 101.7, up 4.9 points over the prior week, finally reaching the January growth baseline. The big milestone in new listings growth comes as seller sentiment continues to build momentum…After constant gradual improvements since mid-April, seller confidence appears to be reaching an important milestone. The temporary boost in new listings comes as the summer season replaces the typical spring homebuying season. More homes are entering the market than typical for this time of the year.”
Why is this good for sellers?
A good time to enter the housing market is when the competition in your area is low, meaning there are fewer sellers than interested buyers. You don’t want to wait for all of the other homeowners to list their houses before you do, providing more options for buyers to choose from. With sellers starting to get back into the market after five months of waiting, if you want to sell your house for the best possible price, now is a great time to do so.
Why is this good for buyers?
It can be challenging to find a home in today’s low-inventory environment. If more sellers are starting to put their houses up for sale, there will be more homes for you to choose from, providing a better opportunity to find the home of your dreams while taking advantage of the affordability that comes with historically low mortgage rates.
While we still have a long way to go to catch up with the current demand, inventory is slowly starting to return to the market. If you’re thinking of moving this year, let’s connect today so you’re ready to make your move when the home of your dreams comes up for sale.
August 20, 2020
Purchase housing demand continues to accelerate, ultimately providing support to an economy that otherwise has stagnated. The surge in sales led to a rapid increase in the demand for remodeling and home furnishings as consumers look to renovate while adjusting to home life during COVID.
Thanks for reading Tampa Market Monday. If you want help buying or selling your home, please get in touch. We have sold over 5,000 homes in the Tampa area and our mission is “to elevate the practice of real estate to an art form — and to deliver a real estate experience that is re-imagined and extraordinary!
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